Prediction Markets Point to $65K as Bitcoin’s Most Likely February Outcome

On Polymarket, the most actively traded contract asks what price bitcoin will reach during February 2026, with more than $20 million in total volume tied to the outcome. The market resolves based on whether any one-minute BTC/ USDT candle on Binance records a high at or above a given level during the month.

Polymarket contract on Feb. 5, 2026.

Implied odds on Polymarket show the strongest concentration around the $60,000 to $65,000 range. The $65,000 contract currently carries the highest probability at 57%, while $60,000 is priced at 29%. Together, the two levels represent the market’s core expectation for February trading.

Below that zone, downside scenarios attract materially lower odds. The probability of bitcoin printing $55,000 is priced at 14%, while $50,000 carries a 5% implied chance. Targets between $45,000 and $40,000 collectively fall in the 2% to 4% range, signaling limited concern about deeper drawdowns.

Upside expectations drop off sharply above $85,000. The $85,000 contract implies an 18% chance, falling to 9% at $90,000 and just 4% at $95,000. Six-figure targets are priced as tail risks, with levels between $100,000 and $110,000 carrying 1% to 2% implied odds, despite meaningful trading volume.

At the extreme end, Polymarket traders assign less than a 1% probability to bitcoin reaching $120,000 or higher during February, even as millions of dollars in liquidity remain engaged in those contracts. That distribution suggests participation driven more by hedging or asymmetric payoff strategies than base-case expectations.

On Myriad, a separate contract tracks whether bitcoin will post a new all-time high before July 2026, defined as a move above $126,199.63 on Binance. The market currently prices a “Yes” outcome at 14%, with 86% odds favoring failure to set a new record within the window.

Myriad contract on Feb. 5, 2026.

Trading volume on the Myriad contract stands at roughly $19,400, indicating lighter participation compared with Polymarket but a similarly cautious stance. Resolution is based on one-minute candle close prices, rather than intraday highs.

Meanwhile, Kalshi markets paint a slightly more balanced picture for 2026 as a whole. Traders assign roughly a 45% probability that bitcoin trades above $100,000 at any point during the year, with total volume across the series near $1.56 million.

Kalshi contract on Feb. 5, 2026.

Probabilities decline as price targets rise. Kalshi contracts imply about a 29% chance of bitcoin exceeding $110,000 and roughly 22% odds of crossing $120,000 in 2026, reflecting growing skepticism at higher thresholds.

Also read: Polymarket’s Free Grocery Store Pop-up Aims to One-up Kalshi’s Viral Giveaway

A separate Kalshi series tracking when bitcoin could reach $150,000 shows expectations pushed well into the future. The highest probability stands at just 6% for a move before June 2026, with earlier time frames priced between 2% and 3%, despite more than $24 million in combined volume.

Across platforms, the data suggests traders are pricing stability and consolidation as the dominant near-term outcome, while treating explosive upside scenarios as low-probability events rather than central expectations.

FAQ ❓

• What price are prediction markets favoring for bitcoin in February 2026?
  Most contracts cluster around $60,000 to $65,000 as the most likely range.
• How likely do traders think a new bitcoin all-time high is before July 2026?
  Myriad markets price the probability at roughly 14%.
• Do prediction markets expect bitcoin to reach $100,000 in 2026?
  Kalshi traders assign about a 45% chance that bitcoin trades above $100,000 at some point in the year.
• What are the odds of bitcoin hitting $150,000 soon?
  Markets place single-digit probabilities on bitcoin reaching $150,000 before mid-2026.

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