What to know : Stifel analysts predict bitcoin could fall to about $38,000, using a trend line drawn through the lows of major crashes since 2010. The firm argues that bitcoin's relationship with the dollar and global money supply has flipped since 2025, with the cryptocurrency now weakening as the dollar strengthens and liquidity tightens. The analysts say bitcoin's growing correlation with Nasdaq and growth stocks, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cuts and rising tech-sector borrowing costs, could deepen the current downturn.
The race is on among analysts to forecast how far bitcoin could drop, with target prices dropping further every day. The latest to jump in is Stifel, a premier, full-service financial services firm headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old firm predict the bitcoin price could crash to as low as $38,000.
"Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K," the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They're looking at straight line drawn across the low points of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin slumped 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. A line connecting those market bottoms slopes upward and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for the current slide.
Bitcoin peaked over $126,000 in October and has since crashed to nearly $70,000 revisiting levels last seen in November 2024.
The curios case of Benjamin Bitcoin
The Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy tied to the movie "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."
In the movie and the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button gets younger as everyone else ages. Bitcoin is like that: A fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC made it stronger — younger in the analysts' terms — as the dollar weakened from regular money printing.
Now it's fraying, like the kid version of Button, who looks 10 but acts 80, stuck playing piano for retirees.
Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025, the relationship has reversed. It now falls with the dollar. The Dollar Index has dropped nearly 1% this year, extending last year's near 10% slide.
"Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and Global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, thus “aging backward” versus fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed," the analysts said.
The behavior is compounded by bitcoin closely following Wall Street's tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, surging on dovish pivots by the Federal Reserve and slumping on hawkish ones. Though the Fed cut interest rates in the final three meetings of 2025, those largely carried a hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in future.
That tone is ominous, the analysts said, especially as technology companies are borrowing more heavily, which has raised their borrowing costs. This could lead to financial tightening, hitting stock valuations and adding to the pain in the bitcoin market.
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