XRP price projections continue to attract scrutiny as market participants debate how to interpret future valuation scenarios. David Schwartz, Ripple Chief Technology Officer Emeritus, shared comments on social media platform X last week, addressing how XRP’s current trading price relates to probability and observable market behavior.

The exchange followed a direct request for Schwartz to publicly state that XRP would not reach prices such as $50 or $100. The Ripple CTO Emeritus replied:

“I don’t feel comfortable saying something like that. While I don’t think it’s likely, I didn’t think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25. I started selling XRP at $0.10 because it seemed insane. I remember when bitcoin hitting $100 seemed like an impossible dream.”

Schwartz referenced earlier phases of crypto markets to explain why he avoids issuing absolute statements about price outcomes. He pointed to past instances where commonly accepted assumptions were later overturned, emphasizing caution when drawing firm conclusions from present-day expectations.

Read more: Schwartz Says He Knows of No Epstein Links to XRP or Ripple, Warns of ‘Giant Iceberg’

Focusing on market signals, Schwartz explained: “If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10. Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they’d value it more highly than those without that belief, and soon the supply of XRP well below $10 would dry up.”

He added: “That the current trading price is well below $10 shows that there aren’t very many people who really think it has a 10% chance of hitting $100 within a few years with enough confidence to put their money where their mouth is. So anyone who says otherwise is not telling the truth.” Schwartz concluded: “My personal belief is that most cryptocurrency prices are in fact rational most of the time and actually reflect a reasonable analysis of their potential future prices and the probabilities associated with them.” He further shared:

“I also personally believe that most significant crypto bull runs were due to unpredictable external changes.”

• Did Ripple’s David Schwartz say XRP will reach $50 or $100?
  No, Schwartz explicitly avoided making absolute price predictions, noting that while such levels seem unlikely today, past crypto markets have repeatedly defied consensus expectations.
• What does XRP’s current price signal to investors, according to Schwartz?
  Schwartz argued that XRP trading well below $10 indicates most investors do not assign a meaningful probability to XRP reaching $100 in the near term.
• How does Schwartz link market pricing with probability and investor behavior?
  He explained that if rational investors believed there was even a 10% chance of XRP hitting $100, supply below $10 would be quickly absorbed, pushing prices higher.
• What typically drives major crypto bull runs, in Schwartz’s view?
  Schwartz believes significant crypto bull markets are usually triggered by unpredictable external changes rather than widely anticipated valuation models.

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