After a sustained slide from its Jan. 28 high of $90,000 to a low of just over $74,500 — its weakest level since December 2024 — bitcoin staged a recovery to close at $79,000 on Feb. 2. This rally pushed bitcoin’s market capitalization from an intraday low of $1.5 trillion back up to $1.57 trillion, lifting the total cryptocurrency market cap to $2.74 trillion by midday EST.

The rebound triggered a wave of liquidations, catching bears off guard. According to Coinglass data (12.00 pm EST), of the $114 million in leveraged positions wiped out in four hours, shorts accounted for 74% ($84.31 million). Over a 12-hour window, short liquidations topped $175.30 million, nearly doubling the $91.5 million in lost long positions. However, the 24-hour total remained skewed toward long liquidations ($484 million vs. $295 million), reflecting the severity of the weekend downturn.

Mirroring gains in U.S. and European equities, bitcoin responded positively to reports of cooling tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Markets had previously priced in the risk of a regional conflict following potential American strikes. However, the president’s comment that Iran was “seriously talking” to Washington suggested a diplomatic pause, easing investor anxiety.

Read more: Crude Collapse: Brent Slides to $65 as Geopolitical Risk Premium Evaporates

Despite the bounce, some analysts remain cautious, with price targets as low as $50,000. Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital, attributes this outlook to a “capital rotation” where investors are moving liquidity out of cryptocurrency and into artificial intelligence-related equities and precious metals.

“Digital assets are one of the few open liquid markets when others are closed,” Martin said. “It often becomes the source of liquidity when capital needs to be quickly repositioned.”

Martin highlighted that bitcoin’s 24/7 trading contributed to the weekend’s volatility, as it remains the primary outlet for rebalancing portfolios when traditional markets are shut.

With the immediate geopolitical crisis averted, the Bitunix analyst team expects the market’s focus to shift toward the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. This data will be critical in forecasting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path and overall liquidity.

A significant point of uncertainty remains the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. The Bitunix team warned that while a “Warsh scenario” might imply a shift toward balance-sheet reduction and policy discipline, the market should remain patient. Noting that Fed decisions are made by a committee and not the chair alone, the team urged investors to wait for official policy shifts rather than reacting to media speculation regarding Warsh’s potential hawkishness.

• What caused bitcoin’s rebound to $79,000? Cooling U.S.–Iran tensions and equity market gains lifted investor sentiment.
• How did liquidations impact traders? Short positions saw $175M wiped out in 12 hours, catching bears off guard.
• Why are analysts cautious despite the rally? Some expect capital rotation into AI stocks and metals, with bitcoin targets near $50,000.
• What market data is now in focus? Investors await U.S. payrolls and Fed policy signals, including Kevin Warsh’s nomination.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。