Bitcoin experienced a significant drop early Sunday morning, with the price briefly falling to around 76,000. Although there was a short rebound afterward, during the recovery process yesterday, the price rebounded to a high of 79,500 before declining again. This morning, Bitcoin dipped again to 75,700, nearly erasing the previous rebound, and is currently stabilizing above 77,000.
Ethereum also showed a similar trend, plummeting to 2,250 early yesterday morning, followed by a brief rebound. However, it fell again early this morning, hitting a low of 2,230, and then slightly rebounded to around 2,300, with the rebound strength being weak.
Macroeconomic Factors: U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis and Federal Reserve Policy Intensify Market Panic
The recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Firstly, the re-emergence of the U.S. government shutdown crisis has heightened market concerns about future economic prospects, leading to unstable market sentiment. Secondly, the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts and the nomination of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair have strengthened hawkish expectations in the market, further pushing the dollar stronger, which has put pressure on gold and cryptocurrencies priced in dollars.
Additionally, panic sentiment in the crypto market has intensified, especially in an uncertain macro environment, leading to capital outflows and exacerbating the selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum. These factors combined have made the pullback in the cryptocurrency market more severe.
Technical Analysis: Bears Dominate, Limited Rebound Repair Space
From a technical perspective, the short-term trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum lean towards bearishness. The daily MACD and moving average indicators show that bears are in control, and the market remains in a downtrend. However, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, indicating that the downward momentum may be weakening, and a technical rebound may occur in the short term.
On the four-hour level, the MACD for Bitcoin and Ethereum is still in a bearish expansion state, but the RSI has begun to show signs of turning, suggesting that there may be a demand for a rebound in the short term. Although the possibility of a rebound exists, the strength and sustainability of the rebound may be constrained under the overall weak situation.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis:
Support Level: In the short term, Bitcoin's support level is concentrated around the 76,000 area. If the price breaks below this support, it may intensify downward pressure, testing the 74,000 or even 72,000 area.
Resistance Level: The short-term resistance level above is around 80,000. If Bitcoin's price can break through this level and maintain above this area, it may recover and retest the 82,000-85,000 area.
Ethereum Technical Analysis:
Support Level: Ethereum's short-term support level is concentrated in the 2,250-2,200 area. If this support holds, it may promote a rebound repair. However, if it breaks below this support, it may further test the 2,000 area.
Resistance Level: In the short term, Ethereum's rebound resistance level is in the 2,400-2,450 area. If it breaks through this range, there may be strong rebound momentum to retest 2,600, but if it continues to face pressure, the rebound may be limited.
Short-term Advice: Focus on the Strength of the Rebound Repair and the Risk of Breaking Support
The current market is still in a technical pullback phase, and the space for a rebound is constrained. In terms of strategy, everyone should respond cautiously to market fluctuations, especially in the current bear-dominated market environment.
Bitcoin: The support level at 76,000 is key. If this level holds effectively, the price may see a slight rebound, with rebound targets to focus on being the 80,000-82,000 area. If it breaks below the support level, the price may further test the 74,000 or 72,000 area.
Ethereum: Similarly, Ethereum's short-term support level is concentrated in the 2,250-2,200 area. If this area of support fails, the price may accelerate down to the 2,000 area. The rebound targets can focus on the 2,400 or 2,450 area, and breaking through this range may lead to a stronger rebound.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jane Crypto (follow the official account: Jane Crypto) and represents personal views. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be real-time and are for reference only. For more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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