Author: TVBee

Be cautious of the pullback risk in gold!

Technical Analysis Shows Gold is Overbought

Although technical analysis for assets like gold may often be ineffective.

However, the monthly RSI is at 95.6, the weekly RSI is at 82.8, and the daily RSI is at 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overboughtness likely being the highest in 55 years.

Remarkable Historical Similarities

First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, just before Reagan took office.

Second, at that time, the U.S. economy was experiencing stagflation, and now we are seeing relatively high CPI.

Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution erupted, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, while Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).

Currently, there is internal turmoil in Iran, and the U.S. is applying military pressure on Iran, with the possibility of military action not being ruled out.

Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some resemblance to Reagan's presidency starting in 1980.

In Conclusion

By comparing technical analysis and historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold may continue to rise.

However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick and decisive, raising concerns that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly ceases resistance). After the conflict subsides, be wary of a pullback in gold.

From January to September 1980, gold fell and then rebounded, but from September 1980 to June 1982, it experienced nearly two years of continuous decline. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to its previous high.

In the short term, I do not recommend shorting; the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.

But be cautious when chasing prices! It’s not that buying is out of the question, but it is advisable to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.

(Note: Figure 1 is on a logarithmic scale, while Figure 2 is on a linear scale; the monthly gold trend resembles the peak of a bull market to some extent.)

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。