Author: Demir, C Labs Crypto Observer

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the U.S. government shutting down at the end of this month suddenly skyrocketed from 9% to 79%!

Due to the sudden nature of the event and it being the weekend, the crypto market has already taken a hit:

It's worth noting that the U.S. government had already experienced a record 43-day shutdown starting on October 1 of last year, which ultimately ended with a compromise bill passed on November 12, 2025. (While the Binance community was celebrating, the U.S. government had already been shut down for two weeks…)

Now, just over two months after this compromise bill, how is there another shutdown?

01. Why is the government shutting down again?

The reason for the current U.S. government shutdown is that the bill passed last year was merely a "Continuing Resolution" (CR), which temporarily extended funding authorization for most government agencies until January 30, 2026.

Only a few departments (such as the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the operations of Congress itself) received full-year funding.

Congress must pass a new, longer-term bill by January 30, or agencies that did not receive full-year funding will face another shutdown.

The cause of this shutdown is the Democrats' disagreement with the funding proposal for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), citing a recent shooting incident involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

02. Origin of the Somali Immigration Fraud

Trump has recently been fixated on the Somali immigration fraud case in Minnesota, using it as an excuse to intensify local crackdowns on illegal immigration.

However, ICE agents conducted two enforcement actions in Minneapolis, resulting in the shooting of two U.S. citizens, which has sparked significant controversy in public opinion.

The fraud case involving Somali individuals has already been confirmed to involve over $240 million, with reports suggesting total losses could reach as high as $9 billion.

As a result, Trump publicly made fierce statements, claiming that Somalis should "get out of America" and accusing Minnesota officials of "inciting rebellion."

Using this as an excuse, the DHS escalated enforcement actions against illegal immigration, deploying about 2,000 additional ICE agents to the state capital of Minnesota, Minneapolis. The initial targets of these actions were Somalis with final deportation orders.

However, it is precisely these aggressive enforcement actions and the subsequent shooting of U.S. citizens by ICE agents that have led Senate Democrats to oppose the House funding bill that includes DHS funding.

Democrats are calling for accountability and reform of ICE's actions, while Republicans wish to continue pushing their border security agenda.

This deadlock has directly resulted in the current risk of a government shutdown.

03. Crypto Market Becomes the "Payer"

The Somali fraud appears to be significant, confirmed to involve $240 million, with potential total involvement of $9 billion.

Because Democrats suddenly took action over the weekend to oppose funding for DHS, it is once again the crypto market that has borne the brunt of this impact.

Today, the crypto market has experienced a crash due to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, resulting in over $600 million in long liquidations in a single day, and the crypto market cap has evaporated by more than $30 billion in just one day…

Thus, the Somali individuals in Minnesota who defrauded the U.S. government of welfare funds have finally been "paid" by the crypto market today.

As for how the U.S. stock market will react, we will have to wait until tomorrow's opening to find out~

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