Trading moment: Gold and silver have reached new highs again and again, the next support range for Bitcoin is between $84,000 and $86,000.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The global macro market is currently in a severe storm triggered by the resonance of geopolitical games, fiscal crises, and industrial cycles, with both risk aversion and speculative fervor coexisting. Following the U.S. ICE shooting incident that led to the collapse of congressional budget negotiations, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. government shutting down before January 31 has surged to 79%. Coupled with the Trump administration's threats of tariffs and land purchases against Canada and Greenland, as well as the deployment of the U.S. Navy's USS Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Middle East in response to the situation with Iran, global "credit devaluation" trading has reached a climax. Spot gold has historically broken through the $5,000 mark, rising over 2.3% in a single day, peaking at $5,106, with Bank of America aggressively predicting it will reach $6,000 by spring 2026; spot silver has also been driven by rigid demand from the AI and solar industries, breaking through $109 to set a new historical high, with institutions bullish up to $120.

In the foreign exchange market, expectations for a "Plaza Accord 2.0" involving U.S.-Japan joint intervention have sharply intensified, with the New York Fed's rare "inquiry" action prompting yen shorts to cover, causing the dollar to yen exchange rate to drop over 1% to a low of 153. Meanwhile, the South Korean market has shown independent performance, with the KOSDAQ index soaring 6%, primarily benefiting from explosive growth in the semiconductor industry. Driven by AI demand, the global supply of storage chips is extremely tight, with Samsung Electronics raising NAND flash prices by over 100% in the first quarter and planning further price increases in the second quarter. The spot premium for DDR4 has reached 172%, prompting Goldman Sachs to maintain a "buy" rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, noting that server ODM revenue has seen high growth for 13 consecutive months, indicating the establishment of a super cycle in the storage industry. In the U.S. stock market, this week will see earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft and Apple, but market sentiment is divided. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone and trader Peter Brandt both suggest shorting U.S. stocks and the dollar, believing that U.S. assets are at their peak and will decline, while Goldman Sachs strategists are optimistic about Asia but also warn that the global stock market has not corrected for a long time, and geopolitical risks may become a trigger for correction.

Bitcoin closed last week with a bearish candle, with a weekly decline of over 7%, as the price seeks support around $86,000. Matrixport points out that BTC has lost the critical bull-bear dividing line of the 21-week moving average, with no reversal signals in the market; technical analysts are generally pessimistic, with Peter Brandt confirming the formation of a bear market channel and issuing a sell signal. EliZ believes that if it falls below $86,000/$85,800, the price will seek liquidity around $84,500 to $85,000. Daan Crypto Trades notes that $84,000 to $85,000 will be an important support level; Tai Bai analyzes that the weekly candle has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and if it breaks below the trend line, it could drop to $70,000 or even $60,000. Roman continues to be bearish down to $76,000, while Rekt Capital warns that if it breaks below the macro triangle bottom of $82,000, it will accelerate downward. Murphy also emphasizes that losing the $87,000-$88,000 range will undermine the confidence of long-term holders, with key support at $82,000. Nevertheless, bulls are not in despair; a Coinbase survey shows that 71% of institutional investors believe BTC is undervalued in the $85,000-$95,000 range. Astronomer maintains a bullish weekly outlook and has entered long at $86,000, while Sykodelic points out that there is a gap at $89,500 on CME and that liquidity in the $86,000 area has been absorbed. Castillo Trading believes that the return of spot buying on Binance is the only signal for a market rebound. Placeholder partner Chris Burniske has developed a laddered buying plan, focusing on buying opportunities at $80,000, $74,000, and $58,000, stating that if there is a significant drop, he will continue to accumulate.

Ethereum's weekly decline was double that of Bitcoin, dropping over 14%, briefly falling below $2,800, and retreating over 40% from its historical high, putting market confidence to a severe test. Man of Bitcoin issued a warning, pointing out that ETH has fallen below the critical level of $2,867, and if it further drops below $2,773, it will declare the bullish pattern completely invalid; BigBullMike believes that only a return above $2,900 can stabilize it. On-chain data has intensified panic, with Whale Alert monitoring a dormant whale address that suddenly awakened after 9 years, transferring 50,000 ETH (approximately $145 million) to the Gemini exchange. This address still holds 85,000 ETH, and the potential selling pressure puts the market under strain. However, Ted points out that ETH has shown a significant divergence from the Russell 2000 index not seen in years, suggesting that a catch-up rally may occur in 2026, which retains a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

In the altcoin market, meme coins on Solana have finally shown some improvement. Over the weekend, the White House released an AI image of Trump and a penguin heading to Greenland, captioned "Embrace the penguin," leading Binance Alpha to finally list the meme coin PENGUIN on Solana, which saw its market cap rise over 30 times, peaking at $173 million, and has since fallen back to around $85 million. Additionally, the automated tool Clawdbot has garnered attention for its utility, and despite controversies over its token issuance, its token $clawd recorded a maximum increase of 720 times, with a market cap reaching a peak of $17 million (currently fallen back to around $9 million), leading to a shortage of Mac Minis.

2. Key Data (as of January 26, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $87,596 (YTD +0.2%), daily spot trading volume $50.36 billion
Ethereum: $2,895 (YTD -2.26%), daily spot trading volume $30.47 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ENSO, NOM, AUCTION, XRP, ZKC
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 47.72% / 52.28%
Sector performance: The crypto market generally declined, with the GameFi sector leading the drop by nearly 5%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 166,148 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $539 million, including $162 million in BTC liquidations, $149 million in ETH liquidations, and $11.46 million in XRP liquidations.