In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, Moonbirds officially confirmed on X that the BIRB token will complete its TGE on Solana, only providing the time window of "early Q1 2026" while refusing to lock in a specific date. This vague yet clear cross-chain direction ignited emotions both inside and outside the market. According to a single source, within 24 hours of the announcement, the floor price of Moonbirds NFTs surged by over 10%, becoming one of the few highlights in a sluggish blue-chip sector. The narrative surrounding a cross-chain TGE and a public chain alignment choice began to intertwine Moonbirds with Solana: is this merely a "track-switching survival" during a liquidity drought, or an experiment capable of rewriting the relationship between NFT blue chips and public chain ecosystems?

From Blue-Chip Confusion to Betting on Solana

● The trajectory from highlight to slump: Moonbirds was once regarded as one of the representatives of Ethereum NFT blue chips, gathering significant funds and attention during the peak of the bull market. However, as the overall NFT market receded, trading volume and interest plummeted, leading to a noticeable decline in both its floor price and discussion heat. Long-term holders began to feel lost regarding the project's direction, with accumulating doubts about the team's execution, narrative aging, and IP monetization capabilities, laying the emotional groundwork for this cross-chain move.

● Motivation for choosing Solana: With high fees on the Ethereum mainnet and a cooling NFT narrative, Solana has been regaining incremental users and liquidity through on-chain games and Memecoins, and the NFT ecosystem has begun to accelerate its positioning. By placing the TGE of BIRB directly on Solana, Moonbirds aims to leverage the activity and lower fees of this public chain to attract new speculative and user soil; on the other hand, it also serves as a "vote with their feet" against the quiet NFT trading on Ethereum, reflecting a realistic consideration of multi-chain and even migration.

● Symbolic upgrade: Compared to previous small adjustments in operations and IP licensing, this cross-chain TGE represents a decision with more path-dependent implications. It not only changes the technical stack of token issuance but also redefines its narrative from "Ethereum NFT blue chip" to "an old-new IP betting on Solana." This step symbolizes that Moonbirds is no longer just trying to bide time within its original ecosystem but is actively anchoring future value to the incremental story of a competitive public chain.

Vague Window of TGE: Quarter Given, No Date

● Only early Q1 2026 provided: The official confirmation currently states that the BIRB TGE will occur in early Q1 2026, and has repeatedly avoided specifying a date in public information, which has been corroborated by multiple sources. In other words, the timeframe is framed within a span of several months but lacks a clear schedule marker, leaving the market in a long-term waiting state of "certainly coming, but not knowing which day."

● Vague timing and FOMO: This approach of providing only a quarter without a date naturally fertilizes FOMO sentiment. Community members have begun various "guessing games" on social platforms: some attempt to infer dates based on the team's past activity rhythm, while others magnify any subtle interactions with Solana. Information asymmetry here is amplified as an excuse for price fluctuations—any slight movement can be interpreted as a prelude to "approaching TGE," triggering a new round of short-term chasing and emotional speculation.

● Tension between flexibility and pricing demand: From the project's perspective, retaining a loose time window allows for flexible adjustments to the TGE rhythm based on market conditions, technical readiness, and collaboration outcomes; however, for holders eager to "see results on the books" quickly, this uncertainty can easily evolve into a mismatch of expectations. If the market prices in too early, and subsequent delays, technical rhythms fall short of expectations, or the overall environment cools, the current emotional premium may be released in a dramatic retraction.

Birbathon Intensifies Narrative Warm-Up

● Basic outline of the 24-hour event: Recently, Moonbirds collaborated with Solana to launch the Birbathon 24-hour event, focusing on interactive tasks, content, and on-chain participation, further confirming that BIRB will land in the Solana ecosystem. Although public information did not provide exact start and end times, the format of "24-hour concentrated activity" itself was designed as a high-density attention collector, focusing the community's gaze on this new public chain.

● Interpreted as a prelude to TGE: In the absence of detailed TGE specifics, Birbathon is naturally viewed by the market as a warm-up action before the BIRB issuance—both a first large-scale outreach to Solana users and a trial of technical and community collaboration capabilities. For speculative funds, such activities are often seen as signals of "mainline confirmation": as long as Moonbirds continues to voice on the Solana side, the reality of BIRB issuance will be continuously reinforced.

● Building a narrative bridge for multi-chain players: The event itself also invisibly bridges two groups—one side consists of Ethereum long-term holders who remember the Moonbirds brand but are not familiar with Solana; the other side includes new players accustomed to chasing chain games and Meme opportunities on Solana. Birbathon provides a common context: around the same IP and the upcoming token, allowing participants from different chains to realign expectations and discourse in the same scenario.

Floor Price Surges Over 10%: Event-Driven Rotation in NFTs

● Price data from a single source: According to a single data source, within 24 hours of the announcement related to BIRB and Solana, the floor price of Moonbirds NFTs increased by over 10%. Due to the lack of cross-validation across multiple platforms and time dimensions, this figure still needs to be marked as "pending further verification," but the directional volatility trend is already sufficient to indicate the market's sensitive capture of the event.

● Fund rotation and short-term speculation: Against the backdrop of a quiet overall NFT blue-chip sector, funds are more inclined to seek targets with "new stories + clear catalysts." Moonbirds happens to possess both: a strategic pivot to cross-chain on Solana and the anticipated time window for the BIRB TGE. This combination provides short-term traders with a clear narrative fulcrum, and the price surge inevitably mixes in a lot of event trading and emotional premiums, rather than a calm reassessment of long-term value.

● Anticipation priced in early and retraction risks: With BIRB yet to TGE and key parameters not disclosed, the market has already begun to "prepay premiums" for the future token value through the NFT floor price. If subsequent TGE plans are adjusted, token distribution does not align with market expectations, or macro liquidity tightens, the current expectations priced in early may be released in the form of price retraction, forming a new round of passive entrapment. This is a structural risk that participants who entered at high levels, focusing only on headlines rather than rhythm, must confront.

Solana's Larger Chessboard for Competing for NFT Discourse

● Extending from games and Memes to NFTs: Over the past two years, Solana has accumulated a large user base and trading activity through high-frequency narratives of chain games and Meme asset frenzies. On this basis, the public chain has begun to more actively direct resources toward the NFT track, hoping to fill in the map of "high-energy applications + cultural IP." The collaboration with Moonbirds and the design surrounding the BIRB TGE is a key example on this expansion path, demonstrating Solana's willingness to compete for top IPs.

● Potential traffic and user migration: Once BIRB opens trading and application scenarios on Solana, old holders of Moonbirds will be forced to make choices regarding "whether to participate cross-chain," which itself is an experiment in user migration. For Solana, this is an opportunity to introduce a batch of incremental users who have a more mature understanding of NFTs but may not be familiar with the ecosystem of this chain; for Moonbirds, it shifts the main battlefield of its IP narrative from a single-chain narrative on Ethereum to a multi-center structure of "cross-chain + public chain alliances."

● Differences in fees, experience, and narrative: Ethereum still holds advantages in security and consensus layers, but high transaction fees and congestion can be amplified into experiential disadvantages during the downturn of NFT activity; Solana is known for low fees and high-frequency interactions, more aligned with high-turnover trading and gaming scenarios. If Moonbirds chooses to reconstruct its ecosystem within this difference, it must find a balance between "high-value collectibles" and "high-frequency interactive assets"—maintaining the brand's scarcity while adapting to Solana users' expectations for speed and participation.

Speculative Window and Construction Cycle: The Next Act for Moonbirds

Moonbirds has anchored the BIRB TGE on Solana and released a vague time window of early Q1 2026, directly creating a phase of short-term speculation coexisting with long-term reshaping. The floor price of NFTs surged over 10% within 24 hours of the announcement (from a single source, still pending verification), reflecting the market's instinctive pursuit of event-driven opportunities, while the larger narrative surrounding the expansion of the Solana ecosystem provides extension space for this cross-chain experiment.

However, with the specific date of TGE undetermined, key parameters of the token missing, and limited public details on activities, the current price and sentiment clearly carry the risk of expectation mismatch under incomplete information. Any negative surprises regarding rhythm, distribution, or ecological layout could trigger a shift in sentiment from greed to caution. For participants, understanding that this is a transitional period of "narrative leading, construction lagging" is more important than merely betting on short-term fluctuations.

Moving forward, whether BIRB can evolve from a cross-chain TGE experiment into a sample of long-term resonance between NFT IP and public chains depends on three points: whether Solana continues to provide real and usable application scenarios; whether the Moonbirds team can reconstruct product and community structures in the new ecosystem; and whether the market is willing to give enough time for the transition from speculative window to construction cycle to truly complete. In this process, choosing when to enter and what position to participate in is no longer just a judgment on price, but a bet on the entire restructuring process of the relationship between NFTs and public chains.

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