At the end of yesterday's article, a reader asked this question:

"Is there no big cake?"

To determine whether the overflow of funds from the U.S. market will benefit Bitcoin, we need to look at why the overflow of funds is directed towards Bitcoin, or in other words, what the "consensus" driving the flow of funds into Bitcoin is.

To clearly understand this "consensus," we must try to view Bitcoin from an objective perspective, or more calmly put, we should avoid falling into the "self-excited" emotions about Bitcoin that participants in the crypto ecosystem subconsciously construct.

With this mental preparation, we can conduct the following analysis as objectively as possible.

I categorize the "consensus" that may drive funds towards Bitcoin into two types:

The first type is the consensus of the fund controllers. Specifically, in the context we are discussing, it refers to the consensus of major institutional funds controlling Europe, Canada, the U.S., etc., regarding Bitcoin.

The second type is passive consensus. It does not originate from Bitcoin itself but rather spills over from other elements within the crypto ecosystem to Bitcoin.

Let's first look at the first type of "consensus."

When it comes to this "consensus," many participants in the crypto ecosystem might immediately think of the idea that "Bitcoin is digital gold"—this has almost become a conditioned reflex in their subconscious.

But I'm sorry, at least for me, I publicly disagreed with this viewpoint in an article early last year. I have expressed my current understanding of Bitcoin:

It is a special digital collectible, and its collectible value lies in "decentralization," "the use of technology to achieve the sanctity and inviolability of private property,"…

If after so many years, Bitcoin is still compared to gold, I find it hard to explain why Bitcoin's price movements and reactions to the macro world have been closely related to the U.S. stock market, while showing little correlation with gold's movements.

If the trends and reactions of Bitcoin over the past few years cannot clarify the issue, then the stark contrast between gold's soaring pattern and Bitcoin's sluggish trend since last year is even more telling.

Doesn't this indicate some issues?

The industry has already provided clear and irrefutable reasons for gold's sustained rise in recent years: geopolitical tensions, the tearing of globalization, the collapse of the dollar (fiat currency) credit, …

All of these are real risks in the real world, and in the face of these tangible risks, apart from a few fund leaders deeply involved in the crypto ecosystem who continue to emphasize Bitcoin's risk resistance, mainstream global funds and central banks are voting with their feet by choosing gold.

Not to mention gold, even the long-dormant properties of silver have been awakened—India's government has stipulated that starting April 1, gold and silver can be used together as collateral.

In terms of hedging against real-world risks, at least now silver is ahead of Bitcoin.

Seeing this, shouldn't we, as participants in the crypto ecosystem, be a bit calmer?

If Bitcoin's so-called "risk resistance" characteristics are controversial, what has it resembled more in recent years?

In fact, this question has long had an answer:

It resembles a risk asset like the U.S. stock market.

Otherwise, it is hard to explain why Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market have been so in sync over the past few years.

If Bitcoin's movements are in sync with the U.S. stock market, then when funds flow out of the U.S. stock market, will the funds flow out of Bitcoin or into it?

I believe readers can deduce the answer from this logic; it is self-evident.

However, will this consensus among mainstream funds regarding Bitcoin change in the future? Will there come a day when they genuinely vote with real money to consider Bitcoin as "digital gold," possessing the same risk resistance characteristics as gold?

I still believe it will.

Because Bitcoin's decentralization and trustlessness are inherently valuable characteristics for hedging against risks.

However, this change is unlikely to happen in the short term, or at least in the short term, its characteristics cannot compare to gold.

So when and under what conditions might this change occur?

This leads us to the second type of consensus I mentioned, which is passive consensus.

Speaking of this consensus, I need to mention another viewpoint of mine:

The future of the crypto ecosystem lies in Ethereum, and Ethereum's potential is greater than Bitcoin's.

From this perspective, Bitcoin's price fluctuations are not significantly related to the overflow effect of U.S. market funds; they depend more on the development of the crypto ecosystem itself.

In other words, in the coming time, regardless of how the U.S. capital market fluctuates, if disruptive applications and business scenarios emerge within the crypto ecosystem, such as in the Ethereum ecosystem (whether AI, RWA, or something else), making people realize that we can no longer live without blockchain or crypto assets, it will greatly attract external funds into the crypto ecosystem.

In that case, Bitcoin, as the first "idol" of the crypto ecosystem, will naturally benefit; its value of decentralization and trustlessness will be widely accepted and recognized, potentially even surpassing gold to become the true digital gold.

However, this benefit is passive rather than active. This is what I mean by passive consensus.

But before such applications and scenarios appear, Bitcoin's consensus is difficult to be widely accepted. In terms of resisting real-world risks, it still struggles to compete with gold and is hard to match the title of "digital gold."

Here, I will also share my upcoming actions: if Ethereum drops below $3,000, I will continue to XX.

To summarize my viewpoint:

The effect of capital overflow from the U.S. market has little direct relationship with Bitcoin, or even if it is beneficial, it will not create significant waves.

What truly benefits Bitcoin is the innovation and development of applications and business models within the crypto ecosystem itself.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。