Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan shared on social media platform X this week a detailed argument that sustained bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand could overwhelm available supply, setting the stage for a delayed but extreme price move similar to gold’s recent rally.
He stated:
“ Bitcoin’s price will go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term. A lesson from gold’s 2025 move.”
Hougan expanded the comparison, stating: “The price of both gold and bitcoin are set by supply-and-demand. The popular story is that gold prices spiked in 2025 (up 65%) because central bank purchases tilted the supply-demand balance. History teaches us something different, and tells us what’s happening with bitcoin.” He traced the shift back to 2022, when central banks sharply increased gold accumulation following geopolitical and financial tensions, arguing that the buying surge altered market structure long before prices reacted. According to Hougan, early demand was absorbed by willing sellers, muting price responses for several years despite persistent purchases.
Read more: Bitwise CIO Sees 3 Bullish Crypto Opportunities With Massive Upside Ahead
Alongside his commentary, Hougan also shared a visual chart illustrating a decade of central bank gold purchases, reinforcing his thesis with historical data. The chart shows that annual gold buying averaged roughly 400 to 600 tonnes between 2014 and 2019, dropping sharply in 2020 before rebounding to about 450 tonnes in 2021. Purchases then accelerated dramatically, exceeding 1,000 tonnes in both 2022 and 2023, and remained elevated in 2024, representing a more than 100% increase compared to the 2014–2016 period.
The Bitwise CIO connected that persistence to gold’s delayed price acceleration, explaining:
“The same thing is happening with bitcoin and ETFs. Since ETFs debuted in Jan 2024, they’ve been buying more than 100% of the new supply of bitcoin. But the price hasn’t gone parabolic, because existing holders have been willing to sell.”
“If ETF demand persists – and I think it will – eventually, these sellers will run out of ammo. And when they do…,” he concluded. The comparison framed bitcoin as an asset experiencing prolonged absorption rather than immediate repricing, with constrained supply and steady institutional inflows gradually tightening market conditions.
- Why does Matt Hougan compare bitcoin ETFs to gold purchases?
He argues both assets experienced years of heavy institutional buying before prices reacted. - How much bitcoin supply are ETFs absorbing?
Hougan says ETFs have been buying more than 100% of new bitcoin supply since Jan 2024. - Why hasn’t bitcoin gone parabolic yet?
Existing bitcoin holders have been selling into ETF demand, delaying price acceleration. - What could trigger a sharp bitcoin price move?
A depletion of willing sellers as sustained ETF demand tightens available supply.
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