On January 15, 2026, Beijing time, the People's Bank of China announced a series of structural monetary policy adjustments, packaging carbon reduction tools, technological relending, and interest rate cuts into a comprehensive package, drawing market attention to a new round of targeted easing. The three core elements of this action are: operating the carbon reduction support tools quarterly, raising the annual operating limit to no more than 800 billion yuan, adding 400 billion yuan in technological innovation and technological transformation relending, and simultaneously lowering the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year interest rate dropping to 1.25%. Compared to traditional comprehensive easing, this action resembles a "targeted bet" focused on new infrastructure, new energy, and technological upgrades, aiming to reshape the flow of funds through structural tools and build a lower-cost, more sustainable financial support framework for green transformation and technological innovation without excessively amplifying overall stimulus.
800 Billion Yuan Carbon Reduction Ammunition: A Long-term Funding Pool for Green Projects
Based on an initial quota of only 200 billion yuan in 2025, the carbon reduction support tools were directly raised to an annual scale of no more than 800 billion yuan in 2026, which itself constitutes a clear policy signal. The central bank did not choose to release the funds all at once but emphasized quarterly operations, binding the expansion pace of green credit to the project implementation progress through quarterly releases and rolling assessments, guiding commercial banks to continuously support projects aligned with carbon reduction goals rather than in a short burst. The beneficiaries around this 800 billion yuan are already relatively clear: projects highly related to the decarbonization of the power system, such as new energy generation and storage, will naturally become the focus of the carbon reduction tools; green data centers and environmental protection facilities serving new infrastructure, as well as green transportation systems that improve urban travel structures, also possess characteristics that match this tool. From the perspective of funding supply, this is closer to "precise drip irrigation" rather than comprehensive easing, with funds limited to assets that have emission reduction effects and meet green standards, forming a clear distinction from traditional high-energy consumption and high-emission sectors. For the latter, financing is not directly cut off, but there is a substantial rebalancing in the allocation of incremental resources; in the future, to obtain financial support of the same scale, more convincing plans for low-carbon transformation and technological upgrades will be required.
400 Billion Yuan Technological Relending: A Funding Channel from New Infrastructure to Technological Transformation
Alongside the carbon reduction tools, the People's Bank of China announced an increase of 400 billion yuan in the quota for technological innovation and technological transformation relending. This figure currently comes from a single source disclosure, so it should be interpreted with relative caution, but it indicates that the weight of structural credit in the technological direction is further increasing. In the policy narrative, "new infrastructure" and "technological innovation" are closely linked, encompassing data centers, industrial internet, smart manufacturing, and technological transformation projects aimed at upgrading the industrial chain, all of which are included in the future key support scope for relending. The interest rates for structural relending were overall reduced by 0.25 percentage points in this adjustment, with the one-year rate dropping to 1.25%, further lowering the cost of funds based on the new quota, allowing eligible technology companies and technological transformation projects to obtain lower-priced medium- and long-term credit resources within the banking system. This "quantity and price down" operation aims to alleviate the financing difficulties and high costs faced by projects with high R&D investment and long return cycles. However, merely expanding quotas and lowering interest rates is not enough to automatically address the constraints of insufficient risk appetite and limited project selection capabilities. Commercial banks have limited experience in the technology and innovation fields; how effectively they can identify technological routes, assess long-term returns, and manage uncertainties will determine whether this 400 billion yuan can truly flow to competitive and sustainable projects, rather than being passively allocated or formally coordinated under regulatory pressure.
Unified Interest Rate Reduction of 0.25%: Structural Signals Behind Mild Rate Cuts
In addition to the quota adjustments, the central bank overall lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year interest rate dropping from previous levels to 1.25%, constituting the most universal price signal in this policy package. From a historical perspective, the interest rates of structural tools have consistently been lower than general policy rates; this reduction does not exhibit aggressive characteristics but maintains a relatively moderate pace, reflecting more of a continuation and fine-tuning of the existing easing orientation. In official statements, the Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, mentioned that "there is still some space for future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," embedding this operation within a longer-term policy expectation, prompting the market to not only focus on the current 0.25 percentage point reduction but also to reassess the potential combinations of quantity and price tools that may emerge later. Unlike traditional "comprehensive interest rate cuts," this adjustment still locks the scope of tools within a structural framework, resembling a "targeted interest rate cut": it reduces the cost of funds in specific directions such as green finance, technological innovation, and support for agriculture and small enterprises, with the released signals pointing to a long-term commitment to economic structural transformation rather than merely countering a temporary cyclical pressure. The market thus summarizes it as a policy action of "lowering structural tool interest rates to support economic transformation," reflecting the current consensus on policy orientation rather than a formal legal or institutional characterization provided by officials.
Two New Policies and Green Finance: Reshaping the Funding Trajectory
When the carbon reduction tools and technological relending are placed within the policy coordinate system of "new infrastructure" and "new energy," it becomes evident that the central bank is synchronizing structural monetary policy with industrial orientation. By establishing a tool framework with clear purposes and assessments, monetary policy is no longer merely understood as a regulator of overall tightness but is gradually intervening in the structural layer of fund allocation, attempting to steer the incremental portion of credit resources more towards green, electrification, and digitalization. This process of "reconstructing the funding trajectory" essentially means that credit is gradually migrating from real estate and traditional infrastructure to green, digital, and technological assets, with the past credit model primarily relying on land and heavy assets as collateral now extending to new support materials such as technological capabilities, data elements, and carbon asset values. Meanwhile, the tension between "targeted easing" and "structural transformation" will not automatically dissipate: under the short-term pressure to stabilize growth, policies must provide sufficient liquidity buffers to stabilize investment and employment; while under the constraints of medium- to long-term goals of capacity reduction and deleveraging, there is a need to be wary of cheap funds being reintroduced into low-efficiency or even excess capacity sectors. The general interpretation of this round of operations in the market is that the central bank is providing targeted support for economic transformation, creating a more favorable environment for green and technological sectors through cost advantages in funding, but this still belongs to the consensus level formed by public opinion, and there remains a long observation period to truly verify its effects through data and performance.
Global Policy Synchronization: From Central Bank Tools to the Green Game of Energy Prices
In sync with domestic structural easing, the European Union announced on the same day a reduction of the price cap on Russian oil to $44.10 per barrel, providing an international context for this adjustment of monetary and industrial policies. The People's Bank of China, through carbon reduction tools and technological relending, is guiding funds towards green and high-tech industries, while the EU is attempting to shape the structure of energy consumption and supply through the energy price cap mechanism. Although the tools differ, both are logically using policy power to correct the direction of resource allocation, incorporating climate security and energy security into the core considerations of macro-control. From a broader perspective, a new policy consensus framework characterized by "green and security first" is forming globally: on one end, there is an increase in constraints on high-carbon and high-risk assets, while on the other end, there is a continuous tilt towards clean energy, key technologies, and infrastructure resilience. China's structural monetary policy happens to be an important part of this picture. For cross-border capital, this policy synchronization will not only change the relative attractiveness of assets in various countries but will also influence the pricing expectations of bulk commodities, especially energy varieties, in the medium to long term. However, at the current stage, the relevant impacts are more concentrated on the re-adjustment of risk appetite, allocation logic, and valuation systems, and it is not appropriate to simply extend this to short-term predictions of specific asset prices.
From Structural Easing to Long-term Game
Overall, the core intention of this policy package is to guide funds towards the dual fields of green and technology through a carbon reduction support tool of no more than 800 billion yuan and a 400 billion yuan quota for technological innovation and technological transformation relending, in an environment where interest rates are overall reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year rate dropping to 1.25%. Compared to traditional short-term stimulus, this resembles a long-term game surrounding economic structure and growth models: by "drawing lines" on the credit side with structural tools, new financial resources are more directed towards carbon reduction, digitalization, and high-end manufacturing, rather than simply countering the temporary decline in demand through overall expansion. The mention by Deputy Governor Zou Lan that "there is still some space for future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" also indicates that the current actions are not the end of the cycle but rather a potential starting point for ongoing policy evolution. Key observations for the future should include the actual implementation speed of various tools, changes in the risk appetite of the banking system and internal resource allocation adjustments, and the performance of real projects in terms of returns and cash flow. Only when these links form positive feedback can the policy goals be validated at the data level. For market participants, viewing this round of operations as a simple "positive signal" is not enough; it is more valuable to continuously track whether the policy direction and industrial upgrades can form a self-reinforcing closed loop, thereby assessing to what extent structural easing can steadily drive the economy towards a green and technology-driven trajectory.
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