1. Bitcoin Price Review
The price of Bitcoin rebounded from below 90,000, reaching a high of over 92,000. Subsequently, there was a rapid decline in the evening, and the price fell back to around 90,000.
After that, the market rose again to above 92,000, but then slightly retreated, briefly dropping below 91,000.
Overall, this segment of the market showed a clear back-and-forth fluctuation:
- Rising from 90,000 to 92,000
- Rapidly falling back to 90,000
- Rising again to 92,000
- Then retreating and dropping below 91,000
There were multiple fluctuations in a short period, with significant volatility.
2. Common Misunderstandings in Fluctuating Markets
In this market environment, losses often stem from two behaviors:
- Chasing long positions at high levels after a rise
- Chasing short positions at low levels after a decline
Chasing long positions after a price increase leads to being caught in a pullback; chasing short positions after a price drop results in being pulled back by a rebound.
Essentially, this phase is characterized by significant volatility and is not suitable for frequent chasing of highs and lows.
3. Core Logic of Structural Judgment
From a structural perspective, this segment of the trend should still be viewed as a correction after an upward movement, with the overall structure remaining as:
- Upward movement
- Correction
- Continued upward movement
During the correction process, the most important support level remains at 90,000.
As long as 90,000 is not effectively broken, the overall bullish judgment remains unchanged.
4. Perceptual Differences Brought by Cycle Switching
At the 4-hour level, this correction has not damaged the trend structure and is more inclined to provide opportunities for bullish positioning at lower levels.
However, at the 1-hour level, volatility is significantly amplified, increasing trading difficulty and emotional interference.
From the 4-hour structure perspective, during the correction process:
- Attempt to position long at lower levels
- Defensive position can be set around the previous low of 89,300
Participating in low-level long positions after the correction generally has profit potential.
5. Review of Long Position Thoughts Near 90,000
It was mentioned last weekend that one could consider positioning long near 90,000 in advance.
If the positioning was completed at that level, then yesterday's rise peaked above 92,000, allowing for profit-taking near the previous high, achieving about 2,000 in short-term space.
Such long positions are only suitable for light positions and low leverage, representing a short-term attempt rather than a trend accumulation.
6. Key Judgment of Current Market Conditions
The core judgment currently remains singular:
As long as 90,000 is not effectively broken, the bullish perspective still holds.
From the rhythm of the trend, this round of rebound after testing support is relatively slow, but a slow pace does not indicate a damaged structure. The current support remains valid.
Only if 90,000 is completely broken and stabilized below that level should one consider the end of the rebound and return to a larger cycle downtrend.
7. Reference Thoughts on Target Levels
Under the premise of effective support:
- Short-term target: around the previous high of 94,000
- Mid-term target: range of 98,000—99,000
The mid-term target requires an effective breakthrough at 94,000 to have further reference significance.
8. Different Interpretations of the 1-Hour Structure
From the 1-hour level, the price is operating within a fluctuating upward channel.
Some viewpoints regard it as a "bear flag" after a decline, but the upper and lower boundaries of the current channel have been tested multiple times, indicating a relatively complete structure.
To confirm a reversal, one needs to see:
- The upward trend line being effectively broken
- Simultaneously, a lower low being established
Before that, within the range, one can consider short-term high selling and low buying, but the overall focus remains on low long positions.
9. Structural Judgment of Ethereum
The key support level for Ethereum mentioned earlier is at 3050.
Although there was significant volatility yesterday, this level has not yet been broken.
With effective support:
- Maintain a bullish judgment
- Defensive position reference at the previous low
- Positioning at lower levels remains the main thought
Once the support is lost, timely strategy adjustments will be necessary.
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