Is the pullback in place? Bitcoin is brewing a rebound, while Ethereum remains under pressure.

Overall, the market is unlikely to have significant fluctuations in the short term. A couple of days ago, I emphasized: after this rebound, the first thing that cannot be done at high levels is to chase long positions. On the contrary, consider entering a light short position at high levels.

The reason is simple— the current market is still in a consolidation phase. Therefore, whether chasing long at high levels or short at low levels is not recommended. A more reasonable strategy would be to sell high and buy low.

1. Bitcoin price trend review and judgment

Since the day before yesterday, I have repeatedly reminded that this key support level below is likely to encounter a pullback. As a result, yesterday the market did indeed complete a pullback and even briefly dropped below that support.

However, I also emphasized at that time:
the price does not necessarily rebound directly at this support level, and it may also drop first; as long as the subsequent price behavior shows a higher low, there is still a chance to form a consolidation upward structure— that is, to rise after a correction.

Previously, our judgment on Bitcoin's rhythm was:

Short term: expect a pullback

Medium term: expect a two-wave rise

Long term: expect a new downtrend

Currently, in the short term, the pullback has occurred. Next, if there is a rebound in the medium term, there is a chance to test the previous high points. However, from a longer-term perspective, we still need to be vigilant about a potential weakening again, even a drop towards over 50,000.

2. Short-term trading ideas

For my part, I currently tend to—
gamble on a rebound from the current position.

I believe this wave of decline is likely close to a local bottom around 65,800; if it continues downward, the space may not be too large, and the probability of directly breaking the previous low is relatively small.

Therefore, in the short term:

Focus on buying low

Set the stop-loss at the previous low point

Target first for breaking through the previous high point

The profit-taking target can be dynamically adjusted according to subsequent trends, but one point must be emphasized: the stop-loss must be clearly defined before opening a position.

3. On "what not to do"

I have repeatedly said a phrase:
when trading, first think about what you cannot do, and then consider what to do.

For example:

When it rises this wave, no chasing long at high levels

Now that it has dropped, if you missed the short position at a high level, it is also not recommended to chase shorts at low levels

The core of selling high and buying low is—
let the missed positions go.

Including yesterday, the Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions we participated in at the member group have already taken profits and exited without holding overnight positions.

4. Ethereum trend analysis

The overall logic of Ethereum is actually the same.

Previously, we anticipated:

Volume increase testing the upper pressure zone

Pressure drop

Most likely retesting the key support below

This key support is:

Previous support level

Transformed into resistance after breaking

Confirmed after breaking through and pulling back

This is a relatively standard and reasonable range consolidation structure.

Yesterday, Ethereum fell from around 2,020 to just over 1,800, breaking below 1,900, with an overall drop of more than 100 points, which basically meets expectations.

5. Choices for upcoming varieties

Current position:

Ethereum: I believe this wave of decline is also nearing its end, with short-term rebound demand.

However, from the perspective of structural strength, I more recommend:

Long positions should prioritize Bitcoin

Short positions can prioritize Ethereum

The reason is:

If Bitcoin strengthens, there is a chance to break the previous high

And even if Ethereum rebounds, it will still be largely constrained by the upper resistance zone, making it difficult to create a new high

Relatively speaking, Ethereum's decline may be smoother, while the upward resistance is heavier.

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