1. Review of Short-term Thoughts

In yesterday's video, I emphasized: It is not recommended to chase long positions at high levels in short-term trading.

At the current position, although a reversal structure has formed at the bottom, the neck line has been broken, and the key resistance has been surpassed, the market has indeed experienced a significant increase. However, even so, after this wave of rise, it is still not recommended to blindly chase longs at high levels.

The reason is simple: If you chase long here, your stop loss must be placed near the neck line support of the multiple bottoms below, making the risk-reward ratio not ideal.

Moreover, as mentioned yesterday, there is a possibility of a short-term downward correction. Complex adjustment markets are inherently difficult to trade because such structures typically exhibit irregular fluctuations and inconsistent rhythms.

A relatively safer approach is:

Price rebounds after a drop, betting on longs at low levels

Price retreats after a surge, betting on shorts at high levels

Focus on selling high and buying low

Try to avoid two common mistakes:
❌ Chasing longs as prices rise
❌ Chasing shorts as prices fall

2. Review of Yesterday's Trades

Based on the aforementioned judgments, we participated in a short position on Bitcoin at a high level yesterday, and have successfully exited this morning.

The overall logic remains unchanged:

Short-term: Expect a correction

Medium-term: Look for a rebound upwards

Long-term: Continue to pay attention to new downward trend opportunities

However, there is a key variable here - whether the support below can hold.

3. Key Levels for Bitcoin

The most critical support zone currently is:

🎯 The 65,000–66,000 range

This position is crucial because:

This was once an important support

After breaking below, it formed effective resistance upon two retests

It is a typical area of support and resistance switch

The market built multiple bottoms here and then broke upwards the day before yesterday, followed by a pullback.

✅ The core observation point in the market next is:
During this round of pullback, can this support hold up.

4. Two Possible Paths

Situation One: Support Holds (Strong Bias)

If the 65,000–66,000 area can effectively hold, forming progressively higher swing lows, then the market has a chance to:

➡️ A second wave of upward movement
➡️ Break previous highs
➡️ Grab liquidity from above

This structure is technically valid.

Situation Two: Support Breaks (Weak Bias)

If a new low appears afterwards, leading to another breakdown, the market will likely enter:

➡️ Lower highs
➡️ Continuation of the bearish trend

This point requires vigilance.

5. Synchronized Analysis of Ethereum Structure

The structure of Ethereum is highly similar to that of Bitcoin.

After this significant surge, it is also not suitable to chase longs at high levels. We participated in a short position on Ethereum at high levels in our membership system yesterday.

Currently, it seems this round of decline has not fully completed.

🎯 Key Support for Ethereum:

1,900–1,920 range

Here is also:

Previous support

Pressure test area after breakdown

Key level for bullish-bearish transition

6. Future Attention for Ethereum

In the short term, the greater probability is:

➡️ Continued downward pullback
➡️ Testing support near 1,900

Next, focus on observing:

If it stabilizes near 1,900 → There is hope for another rebound

If it effectively breaks down → The structure will clearly weaken

7. Review of Previous "Fake-out"

That rapid breakdown segment actually belongs to a fake-out behavior in hindsight. At that time, I also judged it as a continuation of the trend, but the final answer the market gave was a fluctuating structure.

This also once again demonstrates:

⚠️ The current market is still in a complex fluctuation phase
⚠️ One-sided thinking can easily result in getting hit back and forth

Moreover, from a time perspective:

The previous round of consolidation lasted nearly a month and a half

The current adjustment time has been less than a month

In terms of cycles, the fluctuation may not be fully over yet.

8. The Most Pragmatic Trading Strategy Currently

At this stage, my core view remains the same:

✅ Short-term: Expect ongoing fluctuating adjustments
✅ Operations: Focus on short-term selling high and buying low
✅ Missed positions: Better to wait, do not chase prices

Remember a simple principle:

Did not catch the high for shorts → Wait for the low for longs

Did not catch the low for longs → Wait for the high for shorts

If neither side was caught → Just keep waiting

Patience is part of trading itself.

9. Bold Predictions at Trend Level

If the market can effectively break above the previous highs, it likely means this round of adjustment is nearing its end, and the market is expected to enter a new upward phase.

However, if it cannot break above for an extended period and instead makes new lows, then in the next stage we must start considering more:

➡️ Lower highs
➡️ Continuation of the bearish trend

Follow me, join the community, and progress together.

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