Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran, global assets are undergoing a new round of revaluation. Spot gold has broken through the $4,600 mark, with a cumulative increase of $280 in the first month of the new year, while spot silver has even surpassed $84 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with intraday gains approaching 5%. Although the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) may bring about $5 billion in short-term selling pressure, analysts generally believe that gold remains the ultimate safe haven in geopolitical crises, and the increasing supply tightness of silver due to industrial and investment demand keeps its long-term fundamentals solid. There are even expectations in the market for gold prices to hit $5,000 and silver prices to exceed $100.

In this turbulent context, the actions of the Federal Reserve have become the focus. The Fed's balance sheet recently expanded by $105 billion, the largest increase since 2022, and Chairman Powell is facing a criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office regarding renovation funds. Despite the complex macro environment, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle remains optimistic in his 2026 outlook report, predicting U.S. GDP growth of 2.8%, above the market's general expectation of 2%, and expects inflation to moderately decline to 2.1%. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and September, believing that economic growth will be driven more by productivity improvements from artificial intelligence and other factors. At the same time, the Trump administration's geopolitical moves, including a tough stance on Iran and judicial rulings on tariff policies, have added more uncertainty to the market.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $92,000, still unable to break through the resistance level of $95,000. On the bullish side, BitBull points out that the weekly RSI has broken the downtrend line, predicting that prices may reach $103,000 to $105,000 in the next 3 to 4 weeks; traders James Easton and Skew have also observed bullish divergence and buying strength, believing that the $90,000 support is solid; MartyParty analyzes that Bitfinex whales are closing long positions, which is usually a signal of a Wyckoff "spring" bottom, suggesting this may indicate a significant rally similar to the 50% increase in early 2025, targeting $135,000; CryptoQuant data also shows that retail investors increasing their holdings indicates market cycle maturity.

However, short-selling risks still exist. Doctor Profit points out that the market has formed three major bearish structures, believing that $70,000 is a target that will be reached sooner or later, and notes that insiders have been selling since August; Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer indicates through power law analysis that if 2026 enters a consolidation phase, $65,000 will be the "line of life and death," and there may even be a retest of the $45,000 trend line; Murphy analyzes through options Gamma data, indicating that $90,000 and $88,000 are strong support zones, but there is a large amount of Short Gamma at $92,000, which could easily be pulled back below if the breakout fails.

Ethereum's market sentiment and technical aspects are showing characteristics similar to those before the last major surge. Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan points out that although ETH has fallen 36% from its historical high to around $3,089, the low sentiment on social media resembles the period before last year's surge, and its "second-largest market cap" status has been reaffirmed by the market; analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that the ETH/BTC exchange rate bottomed out last April, supported by a doubling of stablecoin market cap and developer activity, replicating the 2019 cycle. On the technical side, Dami-Defi points out that a symmetrical triangle is forming on the daily chart, with a breakout imminent; Ted is optimistic about its move towards $3,500-$3,600 after holding the $3,000 support; however, Lennaert Snyder remains cautious, believing that if it cannot break through the $3,308 high, it may fall back to test the $2,970 monthly opening price. The overall market is still in the "fear" range, and ETH's subsequent movements will heavily depend on whether it can effectively break through the current technical resistance.

In terms of altcoins and market dynamics, the Solana ecosystem seems to be viewed by the community as welcoming significant positive news. After well-known trader Eugene called for SOL to rise to $160, X platform product head and Solana advisor Nikita Bier revealed that X will launch the "Smart Cashtags" feature next month, allowing users to specify specific assets or smart contracts when posting stock codes. Solana's official statement also indicated that "X's new feature will allow users to directly view Solana token candlesticks and news," although the SOL price reached $144, its weekly active wallet count has dropped from 30.2 million to 7.3 million.

Additionally, news from the Korean market indicates a policy relaxation, as the Financial Services Commission has ended a nine-year ban, allowing listed companies to invest in cryptocurrencies. Both pieces of news are implicitly seen by the market as significant positive support for crypto assets.

The Meme coin sector has experienced rapid rotation from English to Japanese, to Chinese, and then to Sichuan dialect. Over the weekend, the BNB Chain Foundation spent $200,000 to purchase Chinese memes "Binance Life," "Hakimi," "I’m Coming," and "Old Man," although "Binance Life" once saw its market cap rise to $188 million. However, after Sun Yuchen indicated that Huobi would follow the trend of Chinese memes, the market speculated that this might signal a peak in this sector's market. Chinese meme coins like "I’m Coming" and "Old Man" have seen declines of over 20% in the past 24 hours. Currently, the Chinese meme market still primarily revolves around He Yi, CZ, and the BNB Chain. (*Note: Content is for reference only and not investment advice; please conduct your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of January 12, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,022 (YTD +4.8%), daily spot trading volume $29.78 billion

• Ethereum: $3,158 (YTD +6.1%), daily spot trading volume $15.02 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 27 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, IP, ETH, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 9.25% / 50.75%

• Sector performance: Crypto market sectors saw some increases, AI sector up 2.12%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 60,248 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $139 million, including $27.69 million in BTC, $21.50 million in ETH, and $12.34 million in SOL.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $681 million last week

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $68.57 million last week

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $38.07 million last week

• SOL ETF: Net inflow of $41.08 million last week

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch CharacterX (CAI) on January 12

• Zama: Public auction to start on January 12, 2026, selling 10% of ZAMA tokens

• Semler Scientific founder: Special shareholder meeting to approve proposed merger with Strive will be held on January 13

• Binance supports FXS mainnet switch and renaming to FRAX, related trading will gradually adjust from January 13

• Binance Wallet launches exclusive Booster event and token generation event (TGE) for Unitas (UP)

• Fogo announces that 38.98% of tokens will be unlocked at the network launch on January 13

• Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8 AM on January 13, with a circulation ratio of 2.78%, valued at approximately $11.6 million;

• JPMorgan kicks off the quarterly earnings season for major U.S. banks (January 13)

• Ahead of the end-of-month interest rate meeting, several Federal Reserve officials, including Williams, will speak intensively (January 13, 07:00)

• U.S. December CPI year-on-year: Expected 2.7%, previous value 2.7% (January 13, 21:30)

Today, the top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap are: Story up 26.3%, Monero up 15.3%, Canton Network up 13.8%, MYX Finance up 10.3%, Render up 9.8%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as TRUMP, CONX, and ARB will see large unlocks, with TRUMP unlocking approximately $271 million

• This Week's Preview | The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the cryptocurrency market structure bill; TRUMP will unlock tokens worth over $270 million

• “Strategy Opponent” opens new long positions in FARTCOI and XPL, and closes all kPEPE long positions

• LISA crashes 76% in 24 hours, with sell-offs from three Alpha users driving a rapid price drop

• Views on cryptocurrency-related content on YouTube have dropped to the lowest level since January 2021

• Huang Licheng's HYPE long positions have all been closed, with overall positions earning approximately $686,000 in nearly one day

• South Korea lifts nine-year ban on corporate cryptocurrency investments, allowing listed companies to invest in cryptocurrencies

• The floor price of the Clone X NFT series under RTFKT surged approximately 340% in seven days, with market speculation that LVMH and Pudgy Penguins may be the acquirers

• Pump.fun launches creator fee sharing feature

• Spot gold has first time surpassed the $4,600 mark

• Michael Saylor: The best-performing assets over the past decade are NVDA, MSTR, and BTC

• The BNB Chain Foundation bought $Binance Life, $Hakimi, $I’m Coming, and $Old Man within two days

• Bitmine has staked another 86,400 ETH, bringing the total staked amount to 1.052 million

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