Original text: Ye Huiwen, Wallstreetcn

In the hours before the Trump administration announced a raid on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro, a series of remarkably accurate bets appeared on the prediction market Polymarket.

A mysterious account created last Saturday achieved over 1200% returns by betting on Maduro's ousting in less than a day, raising strong suspicions in the market about insider trading related to geopolitical events.

According to CCTV News, Trump officially announced military action against Venezuela early Saturday morning and confirmed that Maduro and his wife had been taken out of the country.

Although this action seemed sudden to the public, there appeared to be early signs in the prediction market. According to Axios and The Information, the prices of prediction contracts on Polymarket regarding whether Maduro would lose power by the end of January experienced significant fluctuations late Friday night, indicating that some market participants may have received highly sensitive information about the military action in advance.

This incident quickly sparked widespread discussion about the regulation of prediction markets and the leakage of political intelligence. The timing of the mysterious account's trades closely coincided with the timeline of U.S. military decision-making, with an investment of just tens of thousands of dollars yielding over $400,000 in returns. Meanwhile, the geopolitical repercussions of this military action are spreading, with Trump later pointing fingers at Mexico in interviews, suggesting that similar actions may be taken against cartel organizations in that country.

This incident not only reveals the sensitivity of unregulated prediction markets in major geopolitical events but also raises warnings about the compliance boundaries for investors. Reports indicate that U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to propose new legislation aimed at restricting federal elected officials and political figures from participating in such prediction markets to maintain the public integrity of financial markets.

Precise Bets Yield Over $400,000 in Profits

According to The Information, citing data from Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, a new account created on December 27, 2025, demonstrated remarkable foresight on Polymarket. This account invested approximately $32,537 over the past four days, specifically betting that Maduro would be ousted before January 31.

Trading records show that the account made significant investments just hours before the military action news was made public on Friday night. At that time, the market estimated the probability of U.S. intervention in Venezuela to be around 6%. As Trump confirmed early Saturday morning that the U.S. had captured Maduro, the value of the account's positions skyrocketed, ultimately yielding a profit of $404,222, with a return rate of 1242%.

Axios's analysis pointed out that trading activity on Polymarket began to rise around 10 PM Eastern Time on Friday and peaked around 4:20 AM Saturday—just before and after Trump's announcement. In contrast, the contract price for Maduro's departure on another prediction site, Kalshi, was only around 13 cents at that time, indicating that the specific capital flows on Polymarket had a clear lead. According to New Republic, in addition to betting on Maduro's ousting, the account also bet on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela.

Lack of Regulation and Legislative Response

This unusual trading once again brought the regulatory issues of prediction markets to the forefront. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) typically prohibits contract trading involving war, terrorism, and assassination, which are against the public interest. However, Polymarket, as a global platform, is theoretically not open to U.S. users, placing it in a gray area of U.S. regulation.

According to Axios, in response to the potential insider information abuse risks exposed by this incident, Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to propose the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. This legislation aims to restrict federal officials from participating in such markets to prevent profiting from non-public political or military information.

Reports from New Republic further indicate that the timing of this trade is indeed suspicious. It was reported that U.S. military officials initially discussed conducting the strike during the Christmas period but postponed it due to weather conditions. While the Trump administration has been relatively successful in preventing media leaks, the unusual fluctuations in market data suggest that details of the operation may have been known in advance by certain market participants.

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