To gain various perspectives, I joined some paid groups, one of which is an investment group focused on A-shares.

The group owner established this group with the intention of sharing a set of technical analysis methods and a macroeconomic view that he has summarized over the years, hoping that everyone can use this method to profit in A-shares. Therefore, the group owner regularly shares insights related to various industries involved in A-shares and macroeconomic trends.

I joined this group because I greatly admire his macro judgments on industries, which are helpful for investing in commodities, precious metals, and industry ETFs. However, I pay little attention to his shared operational methods for A-share stocks—because he uses technical analysis, especially analyzing stock trends using moving averages.

Regular readers of my articles know that I have long stated that technical analysis does not suit me; I cannot operate it.

Although I recognize that the group owner's moving average analysis method is not suitable for me, I have generally looked over it. In my view, this method has three key points:

• Appropriately draw moving averages based on historical prices.
• If a stock price breaks through a certain (major bottom) resistance level, it generally may satisfy three target price levels: the first target price, the second target price, and the third target price. The likelihood of reaching these three target price levels decreases sequentially.
• If the stock price falls below a support level, one should promptly stop loss.

In addition, the group owner particularly emphasizes that when these indicators are not met, one should not casually change stocks. When these indicators are met, one must strictly operate according to the key points.

For someone who truly wants to understand and learn this method, they should first strictly follow the key points of this method to ponder, learn, and comprehend.

If, after learning and understanding, they find this method very useful, then everyone is happy; otherwise, they need to reflect on whether this method truly suits them or if they made a mistake somewhere and did not grasp a key point.

I often pay attention to the comments of group members with such expectations, hoping to see some insightful viewpoints and understandings. At the very least, I hope everyone shares their learning experiences, such as presenting the results of their practice using this method on a particular stock, sharing their experiences and lessons learned, and inviting everyone to help summarize their gains and losses.

But in reality, what I see is a different scene.

Since the first day I joined this group, I have not seen any group member share their learning experiences and lessons in this area. Instead, the most shared information falls into the following categories:

• "Stock A has risen too much, I'm scared, I liquidated my position today and switched to Stock B."
• "What about Stock C? Can everyone share? Can I follow in?"
• "My Stock D has plummeted, forget it, I'll just hold on and wait for the market to come back to break even."

I am also a curious person, and in the early days when I encountered these comments, I actually looked at the stocks mentioned and tried to analyze them according to the group owner's moving average analysis method.

The results of my attempts were as follows:

• "Stock A has risen too much, I'm scared, I liquidated my position today and switched to Stock B." I looked at Stock A at that time; it had just broken through a (so-called "major bottom") resistance level and hadn't even reached the first target price. According to the moving average method, this holder should not have sold at all.

• "What about Stock C? Can everyone share? Can I follow in?" At that time, Stock C had not even broken through the (so-called "major bottom") resistance level, so this investor should not buy ("follow in").

• "My Stock D has plummeted, forget it, I'll just hold on and wait for the market to come back to break even." The third key point of the moving average method clearly states that if it falls below the support level, one should stop loss. This investor should have stopped loss long ago; why did they not stop loss earlier and continue to hold until now?

In my view, none of these comments were made according to the method shared by the group owner for operation, practice, summarization, or reflection.

Whether this method itself is correct or not is another matter, but since I paid to join this group with the expectation of profiting from individual stocks using this method, the correct approach should be to first seriously learn this method and then verify its correctness through practice.

However, I cannot see that the vast majority of people in the group have seriously studied, thought about, and practiced this method; it seems more like they treat this group as a place to find a wealth code when they see others profiting, and a support group when they are losing.

Such comments appear in the group hundreds or thousands of times a day.

Soon, I stopped looking at the comments from group members and the stocks they mentioned; I basically just waited for the group owner to periodically share his new articles—after all, that is the real reason I paid to enter this group.

Today, I suddenly felt inspired to share this experience because there has been some unrest in another group created by the group owner, where some members are claiming that the group owner's moving average method is ineffective, and they have found another "expert," thus inciting group members to withdraw their annual fees and join another small group.

I looked at the comments from the disruptive group members, and since you say the method is ineffective, you should provide examples of how it is ineffective:

For example: On a certain year, month, and day, I drew moving averages for a certain stock, what its support/resistance levels were, what the three target prices were, and what the stop loss price should be if it fell below the support level.

Then, based on these indicators, how did you operate, and what were the results?

However, there were no such comments; only sarcastic remarks.

Interestingly, there were quite a few people who echoed this disruptive group member, with a dozen or so people demanding refunds to join the small group. Even more dramatically, after joining the small group, many reported that the small group was a scam, with some saying they had lost money they intended to use to buy gold jewelry for their wives, and thus requested to rejoin the group owner's group and continue paying the annual fee.

Although I have never used the group owner's technical analysis method to guide my stock trading, and in fact, I have not bought a single A-share stock so far, so I cannot judge the method itself, the group owner's views on macro analysis are still quite brilliant.

Therefore, I feel sorry for the group owner:

A talented person who should be using their valuable time to do more valuable things is being dragged down by such people, wasting precious time and energy dealing with such noisy matters.

This is truly not worth it.

I remember I shared the story of Guanyin Bodhisattva and Green Tara a long time ago:

Seeing the suffering of the world and the continuous reincarnation of sentient beings, Guanyin Bodhisattva felt great compassion and wanted to pay the price to awaken them. In the end, not only did she fail to awaken the masses, but she also ended up being shattered, and it was only thanks to the blessings of countless Buddhas that she was able to restore her golden body.

If even Guanyin Bodhisattva cannot save sentient beings, how much ability do ordinary people have to wade through such muddy waters?

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