It's been a long time since I've seen such an exciting "confrontation":

Two heavyweight figures in China's investment community, both of whom have significant influence, have clashed over their differing views on a once highly regarded target for the first time.

Of course, this clash was not a direct face-to-face encounter, but rather occurred in two interviews spaced closely apart.

First, Duan Yongping recently mentioned in an interview with Wang Shi and his wife that he still holds Kweichow Moutai and believes it will rise again. Later, he also discussed in a chat on Xueqiu that at this stage, as long as Kweichow Moutai pays dividends, he will definitely use the dividend money to continue buying Kweichow Moutai stock.

Next, last weekend, during an interview at the Xueqiu Carnival, Dan Bin expressed (in essence) his deep respect for investors who still hold liquor stocks, stating that Kweichow Moutai's sales will face much greater challenges than before due to the difficulties faced by the middle class—Dan Bin clearly expressed his less optimistic view on Kweichow Moutai.

Interestingly, during Dan Bin's interview, the female host immediately mentioned Duan Yongping's recent positive outlook on Kweichow Moutai after Dan Bin shared his views. However, the host seemed to interrupt this topic voluntarily to maintain a harmonious atmosphere, not allowing Dan Bin to directly comment on Duan's perspective.

The comments from these two individuals about Kweichow Moutai immediately reminded me of their past views on the brand.

I happen to have read both of their books, and Kweichow Moutai is a significant subject discussed in both. They have both elaborated on their reasons and key points for investing in Kweichow Moutai in their past statements.

Dan Bin left a deep impression on me when he discussed Kweichow Moutai in his book "The Rose of Time": he said that "culture" (of drinking) is something that is hard to change, and for a culture to change, it takes at least several decades or even hundreds of years. Therefore, his conclusion at that time was that even if changes occur, the drinking culture surrounding Kweichow Moutai would not change quickly.

When I saw this viewpoint, I had a question: Before 1949, liquor was not the drink of choice for the middle/upper class in China, and Kweichow Moutai was not served at the state banquet in 1949 (it was Fenjiu, Huangjiu, etc. that were served). In just over a decade from 1949 to around 1960, how did Kweichow Moutai become the national liquor and the preferred drink of the middle and upper classes in China?

A little over ten years is not a long time, far from the several decades or even hundreds of years mentioned, so why did the drinking culture gradually change?

Could it be that at least in this regard, it is not a factor supporting Kweichow Moutai's strength?

In this interview, Dan Bin also mentioned the drinking culture he had previously discussed. However, this time, he believes that this culture has changed. Counting from 2018 to now, it has been less than ten years—has the drinking culture surrounding Kweichow Moutai changed so quickly?

Dan Bin also mentioned that today's middle class in our country faces tremendous difficulties, which may lead many former Kweichow Moutai drinkers to (or be forced to) switch to Erguotou.

There have been numerous research articles online about this. A typical example is the study of the development of high-end sake and high-end whiskey in Japan during its lost 30 years.

During those 30 years, the Japanese middle class faced the dual blows of a real estate crash and a stock market crash, experiencing severe consumption downgrade and deflation. Japan, with its long-standing drinking culture, became a subject of early and in-depth research for many Kweichow Moutai researchers.

Of course, there is another viewpoint that disagrees, believing that Kweichow Moutai will shrink with consumption downgrade.

The opposition of these two viewpoints is not new; it existed over a decade ago when Kweichow Moutai was still thriving.

I imagine that investors of Dan Bin's caliber must have studied this issue early on and should have had their own firm views on it. If they recognized this risk early and believed that investing in Kweichow Moutai was only temporary, and that Kweichow Moutai does not have such a strong moat, that would be quite normal.

However, in his book, it seems there is no indication of such doubts about Kweichow Moutai.

In contrast, Duan Yongping's evaluation of Kweichow Moutai left me with several profound impressions:

He believes that Kweichow Moutai and liquor should be viewed separately: Kweichow Moutai is Kweichow Moutai, and liquor is liquor; he thinks that whether young people drink Kweichow Moutai has little impact on Kweichow Moutai; he believes that those who do not drink Kweichow Moutai find it hard to understand Kweichow Moutai.

He believes these factors are unlikely to change due to external environmental changes (of course, if the Kweichow Moutai leadership intentionally sabotages or acts recklessly, that would be another matter).

At this historical moment, as Kweichow Moutai faces a severe blow, we can hear two investors who once highly recognized Kweichow Moutai expressing completely opposite views.

This serves as a very vivid and rare practical lesson for all investors.

At this point, if investors are considering investing in Kweichow Moutai or selling it, they must truly test their understanding of this stock. There are no longer one-sided opinions and views; it cannot be like playing poker where one just believes whoever has a higher rank.

If investors can form their own independent investment views from this "confrontation" and put them into practice, ultimately achieving results that align with their expectations, it will greatly enhance their personal investment capabilities.

In fact, there is an even simpler method: if you don't understand it, that's fine—just don't invest in Kweichow Moutai. There's no need to waste time on a target that you can't comprehend after looking at it for a long time and can't make a firm decision on.

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