For a long time, TGE (Token Generation Event) has been regarded as the "finish line" of Crypto. However, after experiencing a series of narrative collapses and liquidity exhaustion, this logic is undergoing a structural reversal.
With the regulatory boots dropping and institutional forces participating, we may welcome a larger wave of TGEs.
As 2026 approaches, we are in a critical transformation period for the Crypto market.
In this market context, TGEs have become a highly anticipated yet painfully challenging "coming-of-age ceremony" for every project.
In this cycle, when we observe and discuss the significance, quantity, frequency, and changes of TGE (Token Generation Event) events, we find that Crypto is shifting from "valuation discovery" to "value discovery."
2025 - 2026: A Big Year for TGEs and Structural Predictions
Driven by regulatory clarity (such as the US SEC, EU MiCA) and predictions of capital market cycles, 2026 is highly likely to become a "breakout year" for TGEs.
From a macro perspective, the increase in regulatory clarity, the maturity of institutional products like ETFs and futures, indicates that the "macro rhythm" of TGE events broadly answers the question, "When is it suitable for a TGE?"
By the end of 2025, we see many projects committed to token structure compliance and locking in investors ahead of time; several projects are also proactively postponing to 2026, hinting at expectations for the market window in that year. This suggests that 2026 may be a peak period for issuances, becoming a window for TGEs and liquidity release, with the number of TGEs expected to grow by 15%–30% compared to 2025.
However, a surge in the number of TGEs does not mean that opportunities will be abundant.
2026 is a "year of supply," during which we will simultaneously face: the unlocking of many old projects, the delayed TGEs accumulated from 2024–2025, and potentially new narrative projects' TGEs. In this scenario, the market's tolerance for "new TGEs" is decreasing.
On one hand, more compliant and institutionally narrative projects are entering; on the other hand, the concentration of new projects' TGEs leads to extreme liquidity scarcity.
From a more macro perspective, 2026 may see a dual increase in both the quantity and quality of TGEs, with this "increase" accompanied by significant volatility.
On a micro level, the essence of TGEs has changed. In past cycles, TGEs could be defined as marketing actions where "revenue exceeds costs":
Costs: Pressure from airdrops, liquidity being partially drawn away by CEXs, and significant sell pressure that can be estimated in a short time.
Revenue: Market attention, brand reputation, early users.
Currently, market attention is fragmented, the cost and difficulty of building a brand are increasing, and "early users" are not concerned about the product but rather about the monetization of tokens, heavily relying on incentives. This means that the costs and benefits of TGEs have undergone a structural reversal.
The "Token First, Product Later" Path is Gradually Failing
Compared to previous cycles, public chains relied on tokens and grand narratives to build distribution advantages, directing traffic to the ecosystem, and finally filling in applications.
This path is failing:
Narratives require PMF (Product-Market Fit): Liquidity no longer blindly follows narratives; it needs to "distill the truth from the false." If a TGE occurs before achieving PMF, then the token at that time resembles an expensive debt that needs to be repaid; the team's energy and morale may be depleted in internal strife before and after the TGE.
Cold starts in the same track are gradually diluted: In the future, cold starts based on tokens may only be effective for the pioneers of the track (referencing top public chains that can endure cycles, and the hyperliquid Perp DEX track). For many subsequent imitators, attention will be quickly diluted, and liquidity will not grow exponentially.
Inconsistency with exchange goals: The core of exchanges is trading fees, aiming for "the more assets, the better"; if project parties pursue long-term construction, the goals are not aligned. The essence of a TGE is not just a marketing event but also a stress test for the entire team.
If 2026 is a Year of Harsh Competition, How Should Project Parties View TGEs?
Narratives are consensus, not technical parameters: Do not become overly obsessed with TPS or ZK-rollup technical parameters; it is essential to answer: What is the "consensus" of the community, or the "religion"? And how does the product address specific pain points?
Seed community: The first 100 real users are more important than the first 100 holders. This can be seen in many technical communities: these individuals often provide the most genuine feedback and suggestions for the product and conduct low-cost trial and error for PMF.
Sustainable strategies post-TGE: When most projects die from the "good news being fully priced in" at listing, projects need sustainable planning. For example, retaining "marketing" ammunition, transforming "expectation-driven" into "event-driven"; building a real ecosystem through grants and other programs; providing good depth in the long term, etc.
Dynamic balance of economic models: A reasonable unlocking mechanism to alleviate initial sell pressure; emulating excellent projects in the secondary market by repurchasing tokens with real income generated from the product, ensuring that value support does not rely on emotions.
Future projects need to carefully plan in areas such as product delivery, token economy design, market timing selection, community building, differentiated narratives, and compliance transparency to stand out during the upcoming intensive TGE period.
Conclusion: Survival Rules for 2026
Some failures of TGEs stem not from the quality of the product or the team's qualifications but from the team's lack of resilience in facing market scrutiny, peer competition, and narrative shifts. They rush to launch without being prepared for public market competition and narrative transitions.
In 2026, the market is likely to fall into a cycle of "intensive TGE issuance, value volatility and collapse, and market adjustment and reshaping," where blind followers will ultimately face liquidity exhaustion.
It is essential to recognize that tokens are no longer synonymous with growth, and narratives cannot spontaneously generate value.
A successful TGE is not measured by listing and volatility but by whether the team has the ability to repay the "debt" before the TGE, that is, whether they have found a PMF that can generate sustainable cash flow or real users.
This brutal transition back to value is essentially a self-purification of the market, also paving the way for long-termists to cultivate richer soil.
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