Recent research by Galaxy shows that, when adjusted for the purchasing power of the dollar in 2020, the actual value of Bitcoin is approximately $99,848, falling short of the significant $100,000 milestone.

This discrepancy does not negate the increase in Bitcoin's value but reveals how inflation has quietly rewritten the milestones in fiat currency valuation. For this institutional-led cycle, this difference holds substantial real-world significance.

The core impact of inflation is the alteration of the actual value of the dollar. Over the past few years, the purchasing power of the dollar has significantly declined, and the current nominal price, when converted to 2020 dollars, needs to be multiplied by 0.8.

This means that $100,000 in 2025 is only equivalent to $80,000 in 2020. To match the purchasing power of $100,000 in 2020, the nominal price of Bitcoin would need to approach $125,000, and the peak of this cycle is just near that area, intensifying the debate.

For institutions, actual returns are the core evaluation standard. Institutions like pension funds are not concerned with nominal increases but focus more on inflation-adjusted returns, which is also a necessary test for Bitcoin's evolution into a macro asset.

The current confusion in CPI data adds further variables. In 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will pause CPI publication due to funding interruptions, and different statistical methods may yield slightly different results, complicating the assessment of actual value.

Market reactions confirm this value divergence. After peaking in October, Bitcoin fell sharply by 30%, and the assets under management of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dropped from a peak of $169.5 billion on October 6 to $120.7 billion on December 4.

However, on-chain data shows that the foundation remains solid. This year, Bitcoin's actual market value reached a historical high of $1.125 trillion, reflecting a strengthening base of long-term holders.

Future trends should focus on three directions: first, changes in monetary policy that could bring nominal values back; second, high inflation rendering nominal new highs as hollow numbers, with rising real yields intensifying pressure; third, ETF demand accelerating breakthroughs past resistance levels adjusted for inflation.

Citi predicts a basic scenario for Bitcoin in 2026 at $143,000, with an optimistic scenario exceeding $189,000, with the core variable still being ETF fund flows.

Essentially, inflation has made the fiat currency milestones for Bitcoin a moving target. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation, yet it is ironically rewritten by inflation at these iconic fiat currency milestones.

Next time we approach a round number, the market should focus not on the number itself but on the actual purchasing power behind it, as this is the key to whether Bitcoin can truly enter a new era.

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