Price is just a facade; the flow of energy and information density behind it is the essence.

Written by: XinGPT

Many people observing Bitcoin's performance in 2025 fall into the trap of simple price comparisons, not understanding why it has underperformed compared to Nvidia-led US stocks, and even traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

From a high-dimensional perspective, this is actually a question of physics and information theory. Price is just a facade; the flow of energy and information density behind it is the essence.

1. The Crowding Effect of Energy Arbitrage: The Shift of Computing Power Hegemony

In Musk's logic, value is often linked to the efficiency of energy conversion. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the only machine capable of converting energy on a large scale into a digitally scarce asset, which is a thermodynamically based value anchoring.

However, from 2024 to 2025, an extremely strong competitor has emerged: generative artificial intelligence.

The core driving force of the US stock market now is not fiat currency inflation, but the exponential explosion of total factor productivity (TFP) brought by AI. When tech giants invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building data centers, they are essentially competing for global electricity quotas.

At this current stage, the economic added value generated by each kilowatt-hour used to train the next generation of large models or drive high-performance computing chips temporarily exceeds the returns from hash collisions that produce Bitcoin. The difference in marginal returns forms the choice of price and capital; just look at how many Bitcoin mining farms have been converted into AI computing centers.

Capital is profit-seeking and sensitive. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence is steeper than the scarcity curve of "digital reserves," global excess liquidity will preferentially flow to productivity assets with nonlinear growth potential, rather than purely digital assets.

2. The "Atomic Properties" of Gold and the "Code Consensus" of Bitcoin

This year's strong performance of gold is essentially a result of the increasing geopolitical entropy globally.

In the face of de-globalization and systemic uncertainty, sovereign-level players need an asset that does not require network connectivity and does not rely on any clearing system. In this extreme system fault-tolerance logic, ancient gold provides atomic-level certainty.

Although Bitcoin is hailed as digital gold, it still heavily relies on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When the system faces risks of physical disconnection, atomic-level certainty temporarily overcomes the consensus of bits; physical gold can at least be held in hand or stored in a cave.

Gold hedges against systemic collapse, while Bitcoin is currently viewed more by the market as an overflow of system liquidity.

3. The "Volatility Dampening" Brought by ETFs

Tools determine behavior. The popularization of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks the formal taming of this beast.

Once Bitcoin enters traditional asset allocation portfolios, it begins to follow traditional financial risk control models. While this brings long-term capital support, it also greatly smooths its volatility, stifling its explosive potential.

Bitcoin now increasingly resembles a high-beta tech index. As the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates longer than the market expected, this "long-tail asset," which is extremely sensitive to liquidity, will naturally be suppressed.

4. The Singularity of Productivity and the Siphoning of Bitcoin Narrative

Charlie Munger emphasizes opportunity cost.

If holding a monopolistic AI leading company can yield high certainty of nonlinear growth, then holding Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, becomes extremely costly in terms of opportunity cost.

The year 2025 is a rare prelude to a productivity singularity in human history, with all funds chasing that node that may produce superintelligence. As a "challenger to the monetary system," Bitcoin's appeal is diluted in the face of the narrative of the productivity revolution.

5. Phase Adjustment Period in Fractal Structures

From the perspective of complex systems, the US stock market is in the parabolic acceleration phase driven by AI.

In fractal geometry, tiny structures continuously replicate and amplify themselves through simple iterative formulas. AI acts as this iterative operator. From the underlying Nvidia computing power to the mid-level cloud services, and up to the upper-level software applications, each layer replicates the logic of "productivity explosion." This structure is extremely grand, but it also means the system is approaching the physical limits of that local dimension.

Gold's performance in the disintegration of the old order can be understood through the construction process of the Cantor set, which involves continuously removing the middle third. In the current global financial fractal, what is being removed are "credit expansion," "unfulfillable promises," and "high-entropy debt."

As the old order is continuously shredded by debt crises and geopolitical turmoil, the last remaining set of disconnected but unbreakable points is gold. This is a value density produced by "subtraction," the most stable physical foundation in fractal structures.

Bitcoin's current state is essentially a hedge of forces at different scales: the profit-taking pressure from early participants is offset in time by the continuous buying from sovereign nations and long-term funds, compressing the price into a long-term low-volatility range.

This prolonged low-volatility oscillation is dynamically referred to as the reconstruction of an "attractor."

This fractal system is accumulating over time, reserving space for the next scale change.

Ultimately, Bitcoin in 2025 is not being disproven but is being repriced. It temporarily yields to the two ends of the productivity singularity and geopolitical defense demand, bearing the cost of time rather than direction.

When the marginal efficiency of AI declines and liquidity continues to overflow, Bitcoin will return to its true role as a cross-cycle liquidity value carrier.

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