Speaking from the heart, my perspective on the Asian prediction market (Part One)

Recently, many prediction market projects have approached us for collaboration, including several that are well-known internationally. However, without exception, these projects focus their predictions on the sports and political domains, primarily using football and basketball as a means to attract users in Asia and even the Chinese-speaking market.

But I can responsibly say that these methods have become very difficult to penetrate the market in both the Asian region and the Chinese-speaking area. Let's not even discuss unlicensed predictions; even among licensed predictions, there are two major risks. One is being classified as gambling, which can lead to related accounts being directly marked as involved in gambling. Why does PolyMarket care so much about licensing? Is it just to enter the U.S. market?

The second issue is the lack of local adaptation. Indeed, FIFA, the World Cup, and the NBA have significant recognition in Asia or the Chinese-speaking market, but how many of these users are cryptocurrency users? Are these users willing to bet on outcomes, and do they want to place bets through cryptocurrency platforms?

In contrast, the weight of esports in the Asian market is relatively high, with a broad audience. Especially in the Asian market, influenced by video platforms over the years, it has formed a very strong "entertainment factor." Many friends in the cryptocurrency field discuss games more than sports during gatherings. So, can entering esports attract a large number of users?

The answer may still be disappointing. Isn't esports popular? Why can't such a hot topic take the lead on prediction platforms? This goes back to the most fundamental question: Who are your platform's users? Do your platform's users have sufficient purchasing power? Are your platform's users accustomed to settling with cryptocurrency? Do your platform's users have a smooth deposit and withdrawal system? Is the user experience on your platform seamless?

I once posed a question to several friends in the prediction market:

Trump and I both made a prediction.

Trump's prediction was, "Dinner is ready at my house; guess if it's Chinese or Western food."

And mine was, "Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates tonight?"

We both published our predictions on the same platform and shared them on Twitter. Whose prediction had more participants? I think this is not a difficult question to answer. Then I changed the question.

The system and I both made a prediction.

The system's prediction was, "Who will win tonight's NBA game?"

And mine was, "Who is the main character in tonight's big news?"

We both published our predictions on the same platform and shared them on Twitter. Whose prediction had more participants? I think this is also not a difficult question to answer.

What does this indicate? It shows that the effect brought by traffic is the greatest. Yes, in the U.S., the NBA and elections generate the most traffic, but is this traffic truly the largest in a vertical market? The largest traffic may come from a specific person, a particular event, or a certain action, rather than a predetermined formula.

Currently, the prediction market is competing not only against Kalshi and Polymarket but also against a large number of protective ecological systems surrounding them. For example, Kalshi is collaborating with Coinbase, and a well-known wallet is launching its own prediction market. They understand traffic in Europe and America better, but their understanding of traffic in Asia is still not very clear.

It's like Sony struggling to compete with Xbox in "cars, guns, and sports," but Xbox finds it hard to compete with Nintendo in RPGs and creative games; it's a similar principle.

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