What to know : Bitwise expects bitcoin to defy its historic four-year boom-and-bust pattern and hit fresh all-time highs in 2026. The digital asset's correlation with U.S. stocks is expected to fall as crypto-specific catalysts outweigh macro and equity-market moves.
Bitwise is telling clients to brace for a different kind of bitcoin market in 2026, arguing that the asset is maturing just as institutional money ramps up.
The crypto asset manager said bitcoin’s long-watched four-year cycle is breaking down as halvings matter less, rates are expected to fall and leverage has been reined in after major liquidations in late 2025.
"The forces that previously drove four-year cycles–the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles," Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, said in the Monday blog post.
The quadrennial halving slows the rate of growth in bitcoin supply by 50% by reducing the amount of new BTC miners receive as a reward for producing blocks.
Combined with spot bitcoin ETF-fueled inflows and easier access on big brokerage platforms, Hougan expects those forces to help drive bitcoin to new all-time highs next year instead of a classic post-halving bust.
Hougan also argued that bitcoin is no longer the outlier on risk many investors assume, noting that it has been less volatile than shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025 and that its swings have been trending lower for a decade as exchange-traded funds broaden ownership.
At the same time, Hougan forecasts bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks will fall as crypto-specific catalysts, regulation, adoption and product innovation take the wheel.
Put together, Bitwise says, those trends could make 2026 a breakout year for bitcoin as a portfolio asset and pull in tens of billions of dollars in new institutional capital.
Read more: Standard Chartered Throws in the Towel on Bullish Bitcoin Forecast
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