Pain for crypto bulls persisted on Monday as bitcoin BTC$86,143.56 remained sharply lower during U.S. afternoon trading amid growing investor uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic outlook.

Just after the close of U.S. stock trading, bitcoin was lower by 3% over the past 24 hours to $86,000. XRP$1.9010, ether ETH$2,946.24 and solana SOL$126.03 all fell more than 5%. Most crypto stocks showed deeper losses, with Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Strategy (MSTR) falling more than 8% and Coinbase (COIN) shedding 6.4% on Monday. Meanwhile, some stocks fared relatively better amid the carnage, including Bullish (BLSH), which saw a 2.5% loss, and eToro (ETOR), down 3.7%.

The decline in crypto comes as traditional markets are only modestly lower, the Nasdaq closing down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.15%. AI-linked stocks, such as Broadcom and Oracle, however, continue to reel from soft earnings results last week. This sentiment has punished the bitcoin miners, many of whom have seen significant benefits from shifting their business plans to AI infrastructure. Hut 8 (HUT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR) and IREN (IREN) are all sporting double-digit percentage drops on Monday.

Deciphering the decline

Crypto trading firm Wintermute pointed to signs of fatigue across risk assets, noting that both equities and digital tokens are “digesting macro uncertainty rather than entering a sustained risk-off phase.”

While bitcoin had been trading between $88,000 and $92,000 for over two weeks, it's now fallen below $86,000, raising questions about whether further downside is likely. “Without evidence of forced selling or a sustained deterioration in liquidity, downside moves are more likely to remain orderly rather than disorderly,” Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute, wrote in a Monday note.

One key factor weighing on markets is last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a widely expected 25 basis point cut. But forward guidance turned sharply cautious, said De Maere, with the Fed’s new projections showing just one rate cut in all of 2026, a slower pace than many investors had priced in. Markets continue to expect closer to three cuts next year, leaving a gap between investor positioning and central bank signaling.

This mismatch between inflation data and policy expectations is creating a choppy environment for risk assets, he added, especially given the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike this week and its plans to unwind more than $500 billion in ETF holdings, which have stirred concerns around global liquidity and the yen carry trade.

'Selective dip-buying'

Going forward, De Maere expects choppy, range-bound trading to continue into early 2026, with no clear trend emerging until more clarity is provided on growth, liquidity, and policy. He noted that macro concerns have dominated markets for months, but there may be room for bottom-up narratives to re-emerge soon, such as developments in U.S. crypto regulation.

He doesn’t see signs of forced selling in crypto, meaning any drawdowns could remain orderly, barring a shock. “Until then, expect wider ranges, choppy price action, and selective dip-buying, rather than a clean trend,” he wrote.

Analysts at Bitfinex are somewhat in agreement, arguing that the nature of bitcoin's market structure has fundamentally changed and the famous "four-year cycle" is no longer the dominant driver of price action.

"With annual BTC issuance now below 1%, the halving’s influence has diminished," Bitfinex analysts wrote in a Monday report. "Drawdowns since 2024 have been materially shallower, as structural inflows from ETFs, corporates, and sovereign-linked entities have absorbed multiples of the annual mined supply."

They argued that bitcoin is now transitioning to a new phase: one dominated by long-term, patient capital and lower volatility, more akin to gold.

The analysts also noted a historical correlation between gold and bitcoin, pointing out that BTC often lags gold rallies by 100–150 trading days. With gold having rallied sharply in 2025, they said bitcoin may be poised to follow in the coming months, after a consolidation phase.

Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, also projected a more constructive outlook for 2026, but he cautioned against expecting fireworks anytime soon.

"The regulatory changes of 2025 coupled with loosening monetary policy set a good foundation for the ongoing development of the crypto asset class," Howard said. "But I don't expect BTC to be printing any new all-time highs this side of Easter."