Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show weak price movements this week, oscillating around $90,000 after failing to reclaim the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) once again, coinciding with a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The market continues to suppress any effective push to break through the $93,000 level, limiting the upward momentum for bulls.
Key Points:
A Bitcoin analyst pointed out that the contraction of liquidity is suppressing Bitcoin's upside potential, leading to weakened buying demand relative to selling pressure.
The $94,000 to $98,000 range remains a key liquidity zone, but BTC must avoid forming a bearish structure below $88,000.
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin's current predicament is not closely related to market sentiment fluctuations but primarily stems from the ongoing contraction of liquidity (especially stablecoin liquidity). The inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has historically been one of the most reliable signals for capital entering the market, and currently, this indicator is flashing red.
Data shows a significant contraction in liquidity: the inflow of ERC-20 stablecoins has dropped from $158 billion in August to about $76 billion this month, a decline of nearly 50%. Even the longer-term 90-day moving average has fallen from $130 billion to $118 billion, confirming that this trend is not a temporary fluctuation but a structural deterioration.
The contraction in liquidity directly leads to weakened buying power. Darkfost pointed out that the recent rebound was not driven by strong capital accumulation but rather by a temporary alleviation of selling pressure, indicating that the market lacks the capital inflow needed to maintain higher highs or defend key support levels. Without new liquidity injections, Bitcoin's upward momentum is likely to remain weak.
Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto Trades analyzed that the broader liquidity distribution still shows that the $97,000 to $98,000 area is the next key price attraction zone. However, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through the $94,000 level—this is the first barrier that must be overcome for volatility expansion to occur.
If a breakout cannot be confirmed, the market will continue to be exposed to the risk of severe range reversals, keeping both bulls and bears trapped in a state of oscillation.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has failed three consecutive attempts to break through the $93,000 level. After the Federal Reserve's meeting, the latest round of price retracement formed a typical swing failure pattern (SFP), indicating that upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the continuation of the trend is diminishing.
Bitcoin is also approaching the bearish confirmation point of a bullish wedge pattern—if the price falls below $88,000 and forms a bearish structure break (BOS), this pattern will officially take effect. Once broken, it could trigger a drop towards the $84,000 external liquidity area, with deeper downside risks potentially pointing to the quarterly low of $80,600, which aligns with previous price vacuum areas on higher time frame charts.
Nevertheless, bullish traders represented by Captain Faibik still insist that the current oscillation is a deliberate washout by the market to clear weak positions. To restart the upward trend, Bitcoin must achieve a weekly closing price above $90,000 (ideally close to $93,000), which would provide the structural foundation needed for bulls to attack the $96,000 breakout zone, potentially truly initiating an expansion of trend momentum.
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Original: “Despite Federal Reserve Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Still Stalled at $94,000”
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