Coinbase vs. Nevada: Who Regulates Prediction Market Event Contracts?

CN
13 hours ago

The dispute between Coinbase and the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) highlights growing friction between federal crypto oversight and state gambling laws. At issue: whether event-based contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can be treated as unlicensed wagering under Nevada law.

The NGCB filed a civil enforcement action on Feb. 3, 2026, accusing Coinbase of offering unlicensed sports and event contracts in Nevada. A state court denied an ex parte temporary restraining order the following day, setting a hearing for the next week.

Coinbase responded on Feb. 4 with a federal lawsuit arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state interference. On Feb. 9, a federal judge declined to grant emergency relief, allowing the state case to proceed while litigation continues.

The underlying question is deceptively simple: Are these contracts derivatives or bets? Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes — from sports results to economic data — through partnerships such as Coinbase’s arrangement with Kalshi, a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market.

Nevada regulators argue that contracts tied to sports outcomes qualify as “wagering activity” under state law and require a gaming license. State statutes cited in the complaint include prohibitions on unlicensed gaming and unlawful betting pools. Nevada officials maintain the move protects public welfare and the state’s multibillion-dollar gaming industry.

Coinbase, registered as a Futures Commission Merchant, argues that event contracts are “swaps” under federal law and fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. The company invokes express, field and conflict preemption under the Supremacy Clause, contending that a patchwork of state gambling laws would undermine national uniformity.

The company also points out that Kalshi remains accessible in Nevada under CFTC oversight, suggesting inconsistency in the state’s enforcement approach. Meanwhile, Nevada has taken action against other platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi in prior proceedings.

Beyond the courtroom drama, the implications stretch nationwide. If Nevada prevails, other states could classify CFTC-approved event contracts as gambling, creating a 50-state compliance maze. If Coinbase succeeds, federal authority over swaps may be reaffirmed, solidifying a uniform regulatory path for prediction markets.

The case lands at a moment when prediction markets are expanding rapidly, alongside state-led court cases against them, with proponents touting their utility for hedging and price discovery. Critics, especially within traditional gaming circles, see them as competition that sidesteps established licensing frameworks.

With hearings scheduled in both state and federal court this month, the outcome may determine whether crypto derivatives operate under one national rulebook — or 50 different ones. Either way, regulators and exchanges are about to find out how far federal preemption really goes.

  • What is Nevada accusing Coinbase of?
    Nevada regulators allege Coinbase offered unlicensed sports and event contracts that qualify as wagering under state law.
  • What is Coinbase’s defense?
    Coinbase argues the contracts are federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under CFTC jurisdiction.
  • Why does this case matter nationally?
    The ruling could determine whether states can impose gambling laws on CFTC-approved prediction markets.
  • What happens next?
    State and federal hearings are scheduled in February 2026 to address injunction requests and preemption claims.

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