Nowadays, the largest holders of Bitcoin have shifted from whales to publicly listed companies and compliant funds, with the selling pressure transitioning from retail investors' reactions to market impacts from institutions.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

As of the beginning of this week, Bitcoin ETFs and publicly listed companies collectively hold about 2.57 million Bitcoins, far exceeding the 2.09 million held on exchanges.

This data signifies that the price-sensitive inventory in Bitcoin's circulating supply has moved from exchanges to institutional systems, fundamentally reshaping the market's liquidity characteristics and risk transmission pathways.

Currently, Bitcoin's liquid funds have formed three new "pools," each operating under different logic.

The exchange pool reacts the fastest, with over 2 million Bitcoins on platforms like Coinbase that can be traded within minutes, making it the main source of short-term selling pressure; however, this pool has been continuously shrinking since 2021.

The ETF pool holds about 1.31 million Bitcoins (with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 777,000), and its shares are traded in the secondary market, requiring T+1/T+2 settlement processes. Only after authorized participants redeem will these funds flow into the spot market. While this friction suppresses intraday volatility, it may accumulate risks of redemption waves.

The corporate pool holds over 1 million Bitcoins (accounting for 5.1% of the circulating supply), with Strategy companies being the main holders. This type of capital is affected by market value losses and debt maturities, showing lower stickiness than long-term holders but being more sensitive to capital environments.

The rise of ETFs has also restructured the derivatives market. Institutions engage in basis arbitrage by "buying ETFs and selling futures," which has expanded the open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, turning the basis into an arbitrage signal rather than a directional indicator.

Survey institutions indicate that the large outflow of funds from ETFs in mid-October was actually a basis arbitrage closing, not an institutional exit. This mechanical operation complicates the interpretation of fund flows.

At the same time, market volatility has significantly compressed, with Glassnode data showing that Bitcoin's long-term actual volatility has dropped from 80% to 40%.

The daily trading volume of ETFs in the billions of dollars has attracted compliant funds, with institutions balancing their funds as planned rather than panic selling. Coupled with the narrowing of market maker spreads, spot liquidity has increased.

However, the compression of volatility does not mean the elimination of risk. The concentration of holdings in ETFs and corporations means that a single large-scale redemption or liquidation could have a far greater impact than retail trading.

Moreover, this new structure harbors new risks. Most corporations allocate BTC through bond issuance; if prices fall below the cost line and credit tightens, it could trigger forced selling. While ETFs do not face refinancing pressures, continuous redemptions will still direct Bitcoin back to exchanges, merely delaying rather than eliminating selling pressure.

Now, the largest holders of Bitcoin have shifted from whales to publicly listed companies and compliant funds, with the selling pressure transitioning from retail investors' reactions to capital impacts from institutions.

This transformation compresses daily volatility but breeds new tail risks, indicating that the Bitcoin market has entered a new phase dominated by institutions, necessitating a complete update of trading logic and a renewed focus on certain data.

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