In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to continue demonstrating resilience after experiencing a policy storm in 2025, providing support for risk assets such as stocks and corporate credit. However, the cyclical momentum of the economy remains limited, with pressure on middle and lower-income groups, and interest rate-sensitive sectors like the housing market still showing weakness. The Federal Reserve will continue to advance interest rate normalization at a moderate pace, with potential fluctuations in rates, requiring investors to flexibly manage duration. Fixed income investments should focus more on the yields of robust assets, while in the stock market, structural themes continue to outperform cyclical opportunities, with investments and applications in artificial intelligence driving economic and profit growth in the U.S. and internationally. Structural dynamics in overseas markets, a weakening dollar, and low expectations collectively support the performance of international stock markets. In the face of high-risk assets, investors need to dig deep for diversification opportunities, balancing returns and risks.

This article provides a detailed overview of JPMorgan's 2026 investment outlook report, offering insights into global market opportunities and potential risks.

This year, the significant increase in tariffs in the U.S. has brought considerable fiscal revenue, but most of the costs are still borne by retailers, and it is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2026, these costs will gradually be passed on to consumers, temporarily pushing up inflation and suppressing consumption, with the impact gradually diminishing thereafter. At the same time, tightening immigration policies have led to a decline in the working-age population; even with an increase in labor force participation, job growth remains slow, posing a certain drag on GDP growth in 2026 and beyond.

Despite the suppression of economic growth by high tariffs and low immigration, the continuous rise in the stock market has created a wealth effect, and the boom in AI investments and fiscal stimulus policies are also supporting the economy.

In this context, the U.S. economy next year will present a "K-shaped" expansion characterized by alternating hot and cold segments: high-income groups and the tech industry will benefit significantly, while tight labor supply and consumption pressures will continue to constrain overall growth.

JPMorgan points out that the U.S. stock market is poised to achieve double-digit gains for the third consecutive year, marking the third occurrence since the global financial crisis. Looking ahead to 2026, investors will face three core questions: Are stocks too expensive? Can earnings remain strong? Is there a bubble in the AI sector? In this scenario, selective and balanced allocation is crucial for investment portfolios:

Among growth stocks, the tech sector is the most attractive due to its outstanding profitability; consumer stocks have lagged this year due to tariffs and weak consumption.

Beneficiaries of AI should extend from innovators (technology) to enablers (industrials, utilities) and adopters (finance, healthcare).

Traditional value sectors such as energy and consumer staples may be dragged down by low oil prices and weak low-end consumption; the financial sector shows robust earnings and benefits from regulatory easing and a steepening yield curve.

JPMorgan believes that when adjusting investment direction for 2026, investors should first ask themselves several key questions: Is the goal income, capital preservation, or growth? In this process, can they tolerate volatility or prefer low risk? Is liquidity important?

The current macro environment remains complex: economic growth is slowing but has not yet stagnated, low unemployment rates mask a slowdown in job growth, and consumption shows uneven performance between high-net-worth individuals and middle-to-low-income groups; inflation remains high in the short term but is expected to decline in the second half of 2026; meanwhile, significant policy changes are underway. In this volatility, investment opportunities have changed.

The attractiveness of bonds in the market is rising, with investors increasing their allocation to medium-term bonds, but most investors overall still prefer short-duration bonds, with sensitivity to interest rate changes lower than market benchmarks, indicating that if rates decline in the future, medium- to long-term bonds may offer better return potential. In the current interest rate environment, bonds are an effective tool for hedging against recession. Credit assets are similar: a moderate macro environment is conducive to increasing allocations, but if recession fears arise, a focus on active management is necessary.

In terms of stocks, the strong earnings growth of the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks over the past three years has continued to bolster the performance of growth stocks, leading investors to underweight other markets. Although from an index perspective, the value and growth stocks in the U.S. stock portfolio seem balanced, specific holding analyses still show a bias towards growth stocks. Additionally, investor interest in international markets has cooled after a significant rise in early 2025. For the year, non-U.S. stock allocations increased from an average of 20% to 25%, which, while an improvement, still falls below "diversification" levels. This underweight is too pronounced: the structural improvement trend in international markets is expected to continue, making them competitive. At the same time, while the breadth of U.S. stock market performance has not improved as expected, the direction is correct: the contribution of the seven giants to the S&P 500 index in 2025 has decreased compared to previous years, and earnings growth is gradually expanding, with analysts predicting that the earnings growth rates of the seven giants and other companies will tend to balance. This means that as overall valuations remain at multi-decade highs, selected value sectors should play a larger role in 2026, while growth stocks will continue to benefit from long-term structural trends such as AI.

For alternative investments, a goal-based allocation approach is particularly important. Each major sub-asset class will play a specific role in the portfolio: high valuations in public equities may constrain future returns, declining interest rates reduce yield opportunities, and the correlation between stocks and bonds should remain positive in a non-recession environment. At the same time, with regulatory adjustments and technological advancements, ordinary investors' accessibility to alternative assets is increasing (lower thresholds, enhanced liquidity). Therefore, the traditional "60/40" stock/bond framework should be modified to introduce alternative assets, forming a "60/40+" model. By incorporating alternative assets into the portfolio based on investment goals, it is expected to achieve more robust, low-correlation, and less volatile returns.

Related: The NFT winter intensifies: Monthly sales drop to the lowest point of the year.

Original: “JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook: The 'K-shaped Divergence' Continues; AI Adoption Soars”

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