Key Support Level Game Under Trend Layout
I. Market Review and Core Price Level Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): Yesterday, it reached a maximum of 91300 at the lower edge of the 4-hour pressure zone, then fell back to oscillate near the key support level of 90000; the weekly candle formed a doji, indicating a potential short-term reversal. The current price is repeatedly contested around the 90000-91000 range, and the 12-hour candlestick has shown a clear upward channel.
Ethereum (ETH): Yesterday, it encountered resistance at the upper Bollinger Band of 3151, and the current price has stabilized at the important support level of 3100; the weekly candle closed up, and bearish momentum has weakened (as confirmed by the MACD indicator), but the monthly line is still in a death cross state, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged.
II. Multi-Cycle Technical Analysis
- Long-Term Cycle (Monthly)
BTC and ETH both maintain a death cross pattern, and the overall bearish trend has not fundamentally reversed. The short-term rebound is temporarily viewed as a range correction, and caution is needed regarding high-level pressure risks.
- Medium-Term Cycle (Weekly)
The doji pattern of BTC releases a reversal signal. If this week continues the opening trend, it is expected to test last week's high of 93000;
The bearish momentum of ETH continues to weaken, and the weekly structure is relatively strong, with the possibility of an early attack.
- Short-Term Cycle (4-Hour/12-Hour)
BTC is oscillating fiercely in the 90000-91000 range, and the 12-hour upward channel has opened; the effectiveness of the 3100 support level for ETH is highlighted, and upward momentum is accumulating after short-term oscillation.
III. Today's Operation Strategy and Core Logic
- Operation Direction
Trend Following Long Position: BTC can be bought at market price near the support level of 90000, and ETH can be bought near the support level of 3100, relying on the current upward trend to bet on a rebound;
Long-Term Short Position Planning: If BTC tests the previous high of 93000, a light short position can be established to bet on a range pullback under the monthly bearish pattern.
- Core Logic
Short-Term Bottom Has Appeared: Based on multi-cycle candlestick analysis, there are clear signs of bottom formation at the current position, and the probability of an extreme pullback is low;
Volatility Equals Opportunity: There is no need to get entangled in a single direction; focus on capturing the volatility in the 90000-93000 (BTC) and 3100-3151 (ETH) ranges, and adjust strategies promptly following signals;
Cycle Resonance Priority: Operations need to consider the coordination of multiple cycles, acting in line with the short-term trend while being cautious of long-term pressure at the monthly level.
- Risk Warning
Strictly maintain key support/resistance levels; immediately stop loss and exit if broken to avoid losses from trend reversals;
The monthly bearish pattern remains unchanged; a short-term rebound does not indicate a reversal, so do not blindly chase highs and maintain position flexibility.
IV. Core View Summary
The current cryptocurrency market is in a "short-term rebound + long-term bearish" balance phase. BTC 90000 and ETH 3100 serve as core support levels, representing advantageous areas for trend-following long positions. Attention should be focused on the breakthrough of BTC 93000's previous high. The core of trading lies in capturing range volatility and closely following cycle signals, rather than being fixated on a single direction. Learning to analyze multi-cycle interactions will enable one to seize certain opportunities in a volatile market.
12-9 Layout Sharing
Buy Bitcoin at 90000-89500, take profit at 91000-91500-92000.
Buy Ethereum at 3100-3050, take profit at 3150-3200-3250.
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