I. The Underlying Logic of Public Chains: Platform Thinking Drives Ecological Expansion
The core advantage of Ethereum lies in its platform-based development of an open ecosystem, following the logic of "internet-style expansion":
- Early focus on L2 expansion: By utilizing technologies like Rollup to reduce transaction costs and increase throughput, it quickly gathers DeFi, NFT, and other ecological applications and user bases (referencing the internet thinking of "first traffic, then monetization" seen in Alipay and WeChat);
- Later stages accommodate large-scale settlements: Once the mainnet TPS (transactions per second) improves, it gradually supports payment, asset trading, and other large settlement needs, forming a positive cycle of "user growth → ecological prosperity → settlement capability upgrade."
II. Value Anchoring: TVL-Driven Valuation System
The lower limit of ETH's valuation is determined by the total locked value (TVL) of the ecosystem, which continues to rise as the ecosystem expands:
- Ecological stickiness brings profit space: Once users develop usage habits due to applications, the platform can achieve "profit" by slightly increasing transaction fees, while ecological prosperity in turn boosts TVL, solidifying ETH's intrinsic value;
- New trends amplify value boundaries: Scenarios like tokenization in the US stock market and RWA (real-world assets on-chain, such as real estate and bonds) directly enhance ecological TVL and transaction fee throughput. According to calculations over a 30-year dimension, if the stablecoin scale reaches 3 trillion and RWA reaches 20 trillion, the minimum market value of ETH could correspond to the 3 trillion level.
III. Evolution of Monetary Attributes: From Payment Tool to "Currency Settlement Layer"
The usage scenarios of currency always flow towards the areas with the highest transaction volume, and ETH's ultimate value lies in becoming the "settlement layer of currency":
- Payment system vs. currency system: If ETH is only used as a payment tool, its market value would benchmark against SWIFT (valuation lower limit); if its ecosystem corresponds to the global currency system (covering all scenarios of payment, assets, credit, etc.), then the value space is limitless;
- Segmented demands in the AI era: AI-driven small and fast settlements (such as computing power trading and cross-domain micropayments) require stablecoins (price stability, efficient execution), and ETH, as the underlying public chain, supports stablecoin issuance, cross-chain settlements, and complex financial logic, becoming the "infrastructure for currency automation."
IV. Beyond Payments: Building a Full-Stack Financial Ecosystem
The value of ETH goes far beyond "payments," encompassing a full-stack financial infrastructure covering asset issuance, banking services, and commercial functions:
Asset issuance and trading: Supports US stock tokenization and RWA (real-world assets on-chain), achieving standardized asset issuance, on-chain trading, and clearing through smart contracts, breaking traditional intermediary barriers;
Bank-level financial services:
- Deposits: Users can earn interest (decentralized "deposits") by depositing ETH or stablecoins into DeFi protocols (like Aave);
- Lending: Collateralizing ETH allows for quick loans (like MakerDAO issuing DAI) without bank approval, with interest rates adjusted in real-time by algorithms;
- Exchange functions: Supports decentralized exchanges (DEX) and NFT platforms, enabling autonomous trading and circulation of assets;
Empowering commercial ecosystems:
- Payment settlements: Global merchants can accept ETH/stablecoin payments, with cross-border payments arriving in seconds, costing only 1/10 of traditional SWIFT;
- Supply chain finance: Smart contracts automatically complete accounts receivable verification and financing disbursement (e.g., trade financing "payment on delivery" automatically triggered);
- Business automation: Supports enterprises in building decentralized markets (like digital art trading platforms), achieving full-link automation of "issuance-trading-settlement."
V. Open Ecosystem: ETH's Long-Term Competitive Moat
ETH's "openness" is its core barrier distinguishing it from BTC (a closed system focused on value storage):
- Developer-friendly: Supports programming languages like Solidity, allowing any developer to freely build applications (from finance to gaming, from social to IoT);
- Boundless scenarios: Embraces emerging trends like AI and RWA, enabling traditional financial assets (like stocks and bonds) and emerging digital assets (like AI computing power and data) to circulate on-chain;
- Programmable financial logic: Through smart contracts, financial transactions and business logic can be executed in a "coded" manner (like automatic dividends and automatic clearing), completely breaking the geographical, temporal, and intermediary limitations of traditional finance.
VI. Future Outlook: From "Financial Operating System" to "Global Settlement Layer"
The development logic of ETH essentially upgrades from a "payment network" to a "global financial operating system":
- Short-term: Reduce transaction costs through L2 expansion, gathering users and ecosystems (referencing Amazon's "scale first, profit later" logic);
- Mid-term: Promote US stock tokenization and RWA implementation, expanding TVL (total locked value) and application scenarios;
- Long-term: Become the settlement layer of the global currency system in the AI era, covering all scenarios of "payment + assets + finance + commerce," releasing limitless value space.
Conclusion
ETH's ultimate ambition is to become the "Windows of Finance"—when currency needs automated, globalized, and intelligent settlement, its comprehensive functions within an open ecosystem will reshape the global financial landscape, continuously unlocking value space as the ecosystem expands.
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