Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that even if the stock price drops, Strategy (MSTR) will not be forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, claiming that those who assert otherwise are "completely wrong."
Hougan mentioned in a statement on Tuesday, "The drop of MSTR's stock price below NAV [Net Asset Value] does not trigger any forced selling mechanism," and pointed out Chairman Michael Saylor's strong belief in Bitcoin.
"If MSTR had to sell its $60 billion worth of Bitcoin all at once, it would indeed be very detrimental to the Bitcoin market—that's equivalent to two years of Bitcoin ETF inflows," Hougan said. "However, the company has no debt maturing until 2027 and has enough cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future, so I think this is unlikely to happen."
Concerns about Strategy potentially selling a large amount of Bitcoin intensified after CEO Phong Le stated last week that if the market value of Strategy falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, the company might sell part of its holdings as a "last resort."
Le indicated that if such a situation arises and Strategy's financing options are exhausted, selling some Bitcoin would be reasonable to protect the company's "per-share Bitcoin earnings."
Strategy is also facing a prolonged downturn in the crypto market, which has led to a decline in its stock price, and it may also be removed from the MSCI stock market index.
Hougan stated that Strategy's situation is far from needing to start selling Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is currently around $92,000, which is "24% higher" than the average price (74,436 dollars) at which Strategy acquired its holdings.
He added that even if the stock price drops below its NAV, the company has significant leeway because there is no immediate pressure on its books that would force it to sell Bitcoin.
"MSTR has two related obligations on its debt: it needs to pay about $800 million in interest each year and needs to convert or roll over specific debt instruments at maturity," he said.
He also stated, "Interest payments are not a near-term concern. The company has $1.4 billion in cash, which means it can easily cover dividend payments over the next year and a half."
In the past 30 days, MSTR has dropped 24.69%, closing at $186.01 on Friday.
Part of the price pressure may stem from an announcement by the MSCI stock market index in October, stating that it may remove digital asset treasury companies with more than 50% of their balance sheets in crypto assets.
This move would force index-tracking funds to sell, thereby putting more pressure on MSTR.
Hougan believes this will ultimately not significantly affect market sentiment towards Strategy or its stock price, stating that historically, the impact of such events is usually smaller than expected.
He said, "From years of observing the addition and removal of index constituents, my experience is that the impact is usually smaller than you think and is often priced in by the market in advance." "When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 index last December, funds tracking that index had to buy $2.1 billion of the stock, and its price hardly moved."
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