The recent pullback in Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom. Asset management firm Grayscale believes that the market is moving towards breaking the traditional four-year halving cycle and could reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Some indicators have pointed to a local bottom rather than a long-term retracement, including Bitcoin's options skew rising above 4, indicating that investors have extensively hedged against downside risks.
In a research report released on Monday, Grayscale stated that despite a 32% drop, Bitcoin is on track to break the traditional four-year halving cycle. The report noted, "Although the outlook remains uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle theory will ultimately be proven incorrect, and Bitcoin's price has the potential to reach new highs again next year."
However, Bitcoin's short-term recovery remains constrained until some key capital flow indicators reverse, including futures open interest, ETF inflows, and selling by long-term Bitcoin holders.
According to data from Farside Investors, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, as one of the main drivers of Bitcoin's momentum in 2025, brought significant downward pressure in November, recording a net outflow of $3.48 billion, marking its second-worst month ever.
Nonetheless, recent trends have begun to reverse. These funds have recorded inflows for four consecutive days, with $8.5 million flowing in on Monday, indicating that buyer demand for ETFs is slowly recovering after the sell-off.
Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph that although market positions indicate this is a "leverage reset rather than a sentiment collapse," the key question is whether Bitcoin can "return to the $90,000 low range to avoid sliding towards the mid-$80,000 support."
Crypto market observers are currently awaiting the biggest "swing factor"—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 10. Grayscale stated that the Fed's decision and its monetary policy guidance will be significant catalysts for 2026.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, up from 63% a month ago.
Grayscale indicated that later in 2026, if the "Digital Asset Market Structure Bill" continues to advance, it could become another catalyst for "institutional funds entering the industry." However, for further progress, the crypto space needs to maintain its "bipartisan issue" status rather than evolving into a partisan topic during the U.S. midterm elections.
This effort actually began with the House passing the CLARITY Act, which moved forward in July as part of the Republican "Crypto Week" agenda. Senate leaders have stated that they plan to "continue refining" the bill under the banner of the "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" to establish a broader framework for the digital asset market.
The bill is currently under review by the Republican-led Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated in November that the committee plans to prepare the bill for signing into law in early 2026.
Related: FDIC Acting Chair Says Stablecoin Legal Framework Will Be Introduced This Month
Original: “Grayscale: Bitcoin (BTC) Will End Four-Year Cycle, Break Through to New Highs in 2026”
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