Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States, the price-driving logic of Bitcoin has shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain funds and leverage, with five signals collectively determining the direction of this bull-bear cycle.

First, ETF fund flows are the core incremental engine. Data from Gemini and Glassnode shows that the cumulative holdings of the spot ETF exceed 515,000 Bitcoins, which is 2.4 times the miner issuance during the same period. Research confirms that ETF fund inflows have a much greater explanatory power for price than traditional crypto variables.

In the first quarter of 2024, there was a net inflow of $12.1 billion, directly pushing Bitcoin to break its historical high; in November 2025, a net redemption of $3.7 billion (the largest monthly outflow since its launch) caused the price to drop from $126,000 to the $80,000 range. Now, a single-day outflow of $500 million from IBIT has an impact comparable to that of on-chain whale operations.

Second, perpetual financing and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle. Currently, the annualized financing rate is stable at 8%-12%, with peaks exceeding 20% often indicating a local top, while severely negative financing rates correspond to cyclical lows.

During the period in November 2025 when ETF funds turned negative, the number of open futures contracts decreased, and the financing rate was low, resonating with the decline in coin prices. When ETF inflows surge while financing remains sluggish, it indicates sustained demand; if the financing rate skyrockets but ETF funds stagnate, it signals a short-term bubble driven by leveraged buying.

Third, stablecoin liquidity is the cornerstone of the native market. In 2024, the supply of stablecoins grew by 59%, with transaction volumes reaching $27.6 trillion. Changes in their supply and exchange balances often lead price fluctuations.

When ETF funds and stablecoin supply are both positive, the bull market momentum is strongest; if both turn negative simultaneously, it will exacerbate the speed and magnitude of the decline. ETFs serve as an institutional entry point, while stablecoins determine the marginal funding scale of native traders.

Fourth, the evolution of holder structure reshapes market resilience. Long-term holders (LTH) once reached a historical high in holdings, tightening circulating supply, but the proportion of short-term "hot capital" rose to 38%, making the market more sensitive to fund flows. In November 2025, when prices fell below a key cost range, it was directly related to LTH diversifying their holdings to ETFs and exchanges, weakening support.

Fifth, macro liquidity transmits shocks through ETFs. Bitcoin's beta coefficient to global liquidity changes is 5-9 times (gold 2-3 times, stocks 1 time), making it a high-beta macro asset. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, real yields, etc., quickly transmit through ETF fund flows to the spot and derivatives markets.

The autumn 2025 sell-off was precisely triggered by tightening liquidity and the collapse of interest rate cut expectations, resulting in a chain reaction caused by ETF fund outflows.

These five signals act like interlocking gears: ETFs establish the institutional base, financing rates amplify or weaken momentum, stablecoins supplement native funds, holder structure determines risk resistance, and macro liquidity controls capital costs. When all five align in the same direction, prices are likely to rise; if discrepancies occur, a decline is highly probable.

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