Recently, some friends feel that the market may experience a reversal and hope that I can clarify the expected path for Bitcoin in the future. Below, I will reorganize the overall reasoning.
- Two Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin's Future (I lean towards the second one)
First, I will mention the two possibilities discussed yesterday.
① Possibility One: 5-wave decline ends → 3-wave rebound → further decline (lower probability)
The structure is as follows:
The current position has just completed a 5-wave decline;
Next, there will be a 3-wave rebound, and so far only one wave has formed;
After that, a pullback will occur, followed by a second wave upward;
Once the adjustment is complete, a new round of decline will begin.
This path is not impossible, but the probability is relatively low.
② Possibility Two: The current rebound is basically over → A second test or break of the previous low → Rebound to test the previous high → Further decline (I believe this has a higher probability)
The structure I personally lean towards is:
The current rebound adjustment is basically over.
The market will initiate a new decline, testing the previous low once again.
The previous low is approximately at 80,500.
It may also directly break down to the 80,000 round number.
After the second test or break of the previous low, a rebound will occur:
This rebound will test the previous high area.
After testing the previous high, there will be a slight pullback.
Then, a breakout above the horizontal high will occur, pushing higher again.
Finally, a new round of decline will begin.
This is the complete path that I believe has the highest probability.
- Specific Point Analysis for Bitcoin
Previous low: 80,700 (nearby area)
There is a chance to break below 80,000.
Rebound to test the previous high: may reach the 99,000–100,000 range.
Extreme rebound level: 102,000 (50-week moving average), likely will not break through.
In other words, a more reasonable rebound target is around 99,000–100,000.
After the rebound is complete, a new downtrend will begin.
From the VEGAS channel structure perspective:
The price has clearly broken below the VEGAS channel, and there are signs of a transition from "expansion" to "contraction"—if a structure similar to a "channel death cross" ultimately forms, it can basically confirm that a new decline will emerge below.
In the weekly level VEGAS channel, there is a chance to move towards the 70,000–50,000 range in the future, which is a possible target range for a long-term decline.
The above is the expectation for Bitcoin's overall structure moving forward.
- Ethereum Trend Analysis
The structure of Ethereum is similar to that of Bitcoin.
I believe this V-shaped rebound:
Is unlikely to push the price to break new highs like the previous segment;
Even less likely to form a new weekly bullish trend.
The current rebound resembles a normal correction after a daily level decline, and the structure is quite similar to a previous decline adjustment.
Overall judgment:
① This segment of the rebound is likely already over or very close to the top.
It is more likely to enter a new downtrend afterward.
② Possible Pathways
After some fluctuations, it will move downward, breaking the previous low;
After the break, a smart rebound will occur;
The rebound high is unlikely to exceed 3,200;
3,200 will serve as the main resistance level;
Below 3,200, it will re-enter a downtrend;
The long-term target may approach the 2,000 area.
These judgments are still based on the results derived from the current structure.
Follow me, join the community, and let's progress together. The article is published with a delay and is for reference only.
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