Author: Seed.eth

After several weeks of stagnation, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound on November 26, breaking through the $90,000 mark and recovering losses from Tuesday. This surge not only broke the market trend before Thanksgiving but was also the result of three favorable factors: macro expectations, capital inflow, and improvements in market structure.

Macroeconomic Data Drives Market Confidence

The latest U.S. employment data shows that initial jobless claims have dropped to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April, significantly boosting investor confidence. Although the PPI report indicated a slight increase in wholesale prices due to rising energy and food costs, the core PPI's increase (2.6%) is the smallest since July 2024. Analysts believe this report may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider another rate cut in December.

Following the report's release, JPMorgan economists urgently revised their forecasts, predicting that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, overturning their judgment from a week prior that policymakers would delay cuts until January. Their research team noted that several key Federal Reserve officials (especially New York Fed President Williams) have expressed support for recent rate cuts, prompting them to reassess the situation.

JPMorgan now expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January.

Under the catalyst of macroeconomic positivity, Bitcoin's price surged nearly 4% to over $90,000 on the same day; Ethereum (ETH) rose 2% to $3,025. Major altcoins, including XRP, Solana (SOL), and BNB, also saw increases. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto market reached $3.08 trillion, rebounding nearly 3% within 24 hours, with trading volume hitting $139 billion. Bitcoin's market cap share rose to 56.5%, while Ethereum accounted for 11.5%.

Capital Flow Reversal, ETF Shows Absorption Effect Again

The ETF capital situation has shown significant improvement.

Previously, the market faced severe capital outflow pressure, even breaking historical records. However, data from Wednesday indicated that Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $129 million, Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of over $78 million, Solana (SOL) ETFs increased by $53 million, and XRP ETFs attracted $35 million. Driven by macro confidence, institutional capital is being reallocated to the crypto market.

Coinglass data shows that over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen liquidations exceeding $273 million, with short positions dominating (at $197 million), led by Bitcoin with $86 million in liquidations, followed closely by Ethereum and HYPE.

Bottom Characteristics Gradually Emerging?

CryptoQuant analyst Abramchart pointed out that the market has just completed a deep "leverage washout," with the total open interest dropping sharply from $45 billion to $28 billion, marking the largest decline in this cycle. This is not a bear market signal but rather a significant market reset, clearing out excessively inflated speculative positions and accumulating healthier momentum for future increases.

Additionally, after significant volatility, BTC remains stable above the ETF's average cost price of $79,000, indicating that large institutional funds have not engaged in exaggerated sell-offs. This provides important psychological and financial support for the market.

Combining several indicators that the market has recently focused on, deeper structural changes can be observed:

Puell Multiple Approaching Cycle Bottom

On-chain analyst Ali observed that the Puell Multiple indicator is currently at 0.67. Although it has not yet fallen below the critical threshold of 0.50 for historical cycle bottoms, it is very close.

The Puell Multiple is an on-chain analysis indicator created by David Puell to assess Bitcoin miners' profitability and its impact on the market. It is calculated as follows: Puell Multiple = (USD value of newly issued Bitcoin per day) / (moving average of the USD value of newly issued Bitcoin per day over the past 365 days).

In simple terms, it measures the current selling pressure from miners (or the value of Bitcoin they earn daily) compared to the average level over the past year.

Historical data shows that since 2015, when this indicator falls below 0.50, it often signals the bottom of the Bitcoin cycle. This suggests that miners' selling pressure may be easing, and the market is entering an important observation window, potentially indicating the arrival of a mid-term bottom.

Technical Indicators Turning Positive

Technical analyst Skew Δ pointed out that on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin currently presents a bullish-friendly technical structure, with multiple momentum and trend indicators (50EMA, RSI, Stoch RSI) pointing positively.

$88,000 is the lifeline for bulls, while the $90,000 to $92,000 range will be the key resistance/contested area to confirm whether the market can initiate a stronger structural upward trend. Traders should closely monitor price performance around these key levels.

Risks and Expectations

Despite the short-term improvement in sentiment, the lack of liquidity during Thanksgiving may amplify volatility. Wintermute trading strategist Jasper De Maere noted that the options market shows traders generally expect Bitcoin to oscillate in the $85,000-$90,000 range, betting that the market will maintain the status quo rather than exhibit a breakout trend.

In the medium to long term, $74,000 is a key level to watch. If Bitcoin's weekly closing price falls below this level, the market may face a broader adjustment. Currently, Bitcoin is still down nearly 30% from its historical high of $126,000. Whether this rebound can truly transform into a sustainable upward trend ultimately depends on whether macro policies and capital flows can provide continuous and strong support.

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