A long-term technical trend indicator for Bitcoin has turned bearish, leading at least one analyst to believe that the bull market may be over.
"From a technical perspective, the bull market has ended," crypto analyst "Crypto₿irb" stated to his 700,000 followers on X on Thursday.
He noted that Bitcoin is showing "sustained trend changes, confirmed by price movement percentages, surging volume, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend line, and deteriorating market breadth," predicting that 2026 will be a year of decline.
The analysis highlights the weakening of the 200-day trend line—a visual tool used by analysts to connect specific points and measure trend strength or breakouts.
Additionally, the 200-day moving average, a different indicator that shows the mathematical average price of Bitcoin over the past 200 days, began to decline in mid-November, coinciding with the occurrence of a "death cross," where it fell below the shorter-term 50-day moving average.
These indicators are viewed as both long-term support levels and signals for bull and bear markets.
"There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market," Markus Thielen of 10x Research told Cointelegraph. He added that we are currently in "a bear market reversal rally."
However, Henrik Andersson, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, told Cointelegraph that the buying from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) we saw in H1 of this year is now a thing of the past, but this "does not mean we are in a bear market."
Crypto analyst "Skew" stated on Thursday that from the 4-hour chart timeframe, it "looks much more constructive for the bulls here."
Falling back below $88,000 "would be a weak signal, and upward momentum has failed to push higher," with the key area being between $90,000 and $92,000, which is "the initial area where the market is contesting structural trends."
On Thursday morning, Bitcoin briefly approached $92,000 on Coinbase but had retreated to $91,200 at the time of writing.
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Original: “Opinion: This Indicator Suggests We’ve Exited the Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Market”
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