Using the Day as a Mirror: The Way Out for Ordinary People During Economic Recession

CN
44 minutes ago

"Using the Day as a Mirror: A Survival Guide in the Era of Recession" not only details what the entire Japanese society experienced during the so-called "lost 30 years," but also describes several groups that successfully escaped that curse in the final chapters.

Companies and individuals going all out to expand overseas are one of them.

Let's first look at Japanese companies.

The overseas expansion of Japanese companies at that time was actually driven by necessity.

"The biggest problem in Japan at that time was that all industries, without exception, were caught in a vicious cycle of internal competition."

As a result, Japanese companies began a large-scale wave of overseas expansion starting in 1994.

This wave of expansion was significant for both the country and the companies themselves. From a national perspective, according to the data listed in the book, by 2022, Japanese companies had spent nearly 30 years recreating a version of Japan overseas. From the perspective of the companies, Japanese firms that expanded overseas quickly repaired the damage caused by the economic downturn.

We can see hints of this from the stock prices of related companies:

"The automotive industry recovered the fastest, with the average stock price in the sector exceeding the peak during the bubble economy as early as 1997; the average stock price of electronics and precision instrument companies reached this level in 1999; even the machinery sector, which recovered the slowest, surpassed the bubble period's highest point in 2001."

We generally refer to Japan's lost 30 years as the period from 1991 to 2021. If we consider 1991 as the starting point of the recession, then from the data above, we can see that the automotive industry took only 6 years, the electronics industry took 8 years, and the machinery industry took 10 years to emerge from the recession in terms of stock prices.

There is an even more interesting piece of data:

"After the collapse of the Japanese economic bubble, more than 50% of stocks that grew over 10 times were overseas stocks."

Now let's look at individuals.

"In the 90s, after the bubble economy, there was a wave of overseas expansion lasting 20 years for the entire population of Japan." "Going overseas became one of the few golden paths in the lost economy, and those Japanese who went overseas in the 90s were later referred to as the 'Overseas Warm Current Tribe.'"

The first to benefit from this wave of overseas expansion were the engineering and technical personnel sent abroad by Japanese companies, followed by the operational staff responsible for local operations.

Additionally, there is a term that investors may be more familiar with: "Mrs. Watanabe"—referring to a group of Japanese investors who heavily invested overseas.

Therefore, whether for companies or individuals, if during that recession period one could target overseas or fields related to overseas business, there was a great chance of finding new opportunities while the domestic economy was mired in difficulties.

After reviewing Japan's wave of overseas expansion, this book turns its attention back to the domestic situation.

According to the author's research, he sees 2024 as the inaugural year for large-scale overseas expansion by our country's companies. Furthermore, based on the author's research, the talents and expertise urgently needed by Chinese companies expanding overseas now are almost identical to the situations faced by Japanese companies when they first ventured abroad.

For ordinary individuals, if we reflect on Japan's lost 30 years, and if the broader environment one is in faces the same predicaments that Japan encountered back then, the methods to avoid disaster and misfortune might include the following:

  • In terms of work, if there is an opportunity to follow the company overseas, one should try to go; if unable to follow the company, then seek jobs related to overseas operations or supporting overseas operations.

  • In terms of investment, if one can only invest in domestic companies, then focus on those seeking overseas expansion or already heavily invested overseas. Not every company that goes overseas will succeed, but I believe there will certainly be companies focused on overseas business that will see their stock prices multiply by ten, similar to Japan.

If it is possible to invest overseas, then one should also consider allocating some assets overseas. In particular, for readers interested in crypto assets, do not forget that crypto assets are among the very promising and globalized assets in this context.

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