Bitcoin may break its historically strong performance in November, but Bitfinex analysts believe demand may return soon.
Historically, November is usually the strongest month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass. However, October saw a decline of 3.69%—despite the month typically averaging an increase of about 19.92%—leading some to question whether seasonal trends are still worth considering.
"We will also end November with a 'red month,'" Bitfinex analysts stated, as the asset's price is 20.60% lower than at the beginning of the month.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's trading price at the time of publication was $87,305.
"Seasonal indicators have failed to hold in the current quarter," Bitfinex analysts noted.
Mixed signals have caught traders off guard. For example, trader Merlin stated earlier this month that the weak sentiment following October's decline could pave the way for a stronger performance in November.
"Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. Perfect setup," he mentioned in a post on X on November 3.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts pointed out that since the beginning of 2024, this is only the third time Bitcoin's price has fallen below the cost basis model for short-term holders.
According to CoinGlass, short-term holders, or investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average realized price of $86,787.
Bitfinex analysts attributed the recent price drop to market bubbles, noting that buying activity around the $106,000 and $118,000 levels was significantly higher than usual.
They stated that the result is that deeper holders are now "cutting losses."
Bitfinex analysts indicated that the market now faces two possible paths: either "demand significantly rebounds," or the market will be forced into a "longer and possibly deeper accumulation phase."
However, some signs suggest that demand from Bitcoin whales is slowly increasing. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment noted in a post on X on Tuesday that since November 11, the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoins has increased by 0.47% (91 wallets).
Regardless of whether seasonal trends are still valid, December has historically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 4.75% since 2013.
Related: Coinbase reveals nine major crypto innovation directions it plans to bet on in 2026
Original article: “Bitfinex: Bitcoin (BTC) closes down again this month, but demand may soon rebound”
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