"The competition of the future will no longer be about breakthroughs in individual technologies, but rather about competition in ecosystems, talent systems, and values."

From the roar of the steam engine to the silent revolution of the internet, the waves of technology have continuously reshaped the world in unexpected ways.

Today, we stand on the eve of an even more powerful technological transformation—artificial intelligence has learned to "think," robots have stepped out of factory walls, semiconductors are becoming the "new oil" of the intelligent era, and space is transforming from an unreachable dream into a new commercial frontier.

Looking ahead, which technologies will define the next five or even ten years?

McKinsey's latest report, "Technology Trends Outlook 2025," attempts to answer this question by proposing 13 cutting-edge technology trends with the potential to change global business. It outlines the development blueprint of these technologies from four dimensions: innovation, attention, capital investment, and application level.

In the broader view, capital is highly concentrated in areas such as AI, future energy and sustainable technologies, and future mobility, which are moving from technological breakthroughs to deep applications, with AI leading in both attention and innovation.

In contrast, while specific application semiconductors, advanced connectivity technologies, future biotechnology, cloud and edge computing, digital trust, and cybersecurity may not be as hot as AI, they have quietly become the "infrastructure" for the operation of the digital society, with application levels nearing scalability.

Meanwhile, immersive reality technologies, future space technologies, future robotics technologies, quantum technologies, and AI agents are still in the incubation stage, but their revolutionary potential is already emerging. For instance, AI agents have become one of the fastest-growing hot trends this year, with equity investments reaching $1.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1562%.

Visitors experience the Yungang Grottoes through AR glasses.

In fact, regardless of which technology trend it is, they will reshape the industrial landscape and have already become indispensable competitive chips for countries and enterprises.

In China, these technologies have been included in the key track directory for future industries aimed at 2035, with clear development goals outlined. For example, in the field of future space, the market size in China is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2030, with key development directions including manned low-altitude flight, deep space, deep earth, and deep sea exploration, as well as polar development.

Here, we summarize the key information and data from the McKinsey report to discuss the cutting-edge dynamics, development trends, and talent demands of these technologies.

13 Tracks and Trillion-Dollar Opportunities

In facing these 13 cutting-edge technologies, McKinsey categorizes them into three main types based on their inherent "character": the AI revolution, the frontier of computing and connectivity, and advanced engineering.

It can be said that these three categories of technology each have their roles—one is responsible for "thinking," another for "connecting," and the last for "doing." They permeate and stimulate each other, continuously painting a complete picture of the technological waves of the next decade.

◎ The first category, the AI revolution, includes AI and AI agents. With the continuous expansion of AI's influence, it is noteworthy that the current costs of AI are plummeting dramatically; for example, the price of some reasoning tasks has dropped by 900 times within a year.

According to McKinsey, AI is not only a revolutionary and strategic technological innovation in itself but also accelerates the development of other technological fields or creates new "opportunities" in cross-disciplinary areas. For instance, AI is an important catalyst for specific application semiconductors.

The other technology, AI agents, has quickly become a significant development direction in both enterprise and consumer technology this year. An AI agent can be likened to a "virtual colleague" that can autonomously plan and execute multi-step tasks.

Currently, major companies are adding agent functionalities to existing AI products or developing entirely new applications aimed at specific tasks, especially in fields like software coding and mathematics, where they have strong training datasets.

The market has also sensed the trend. MarketsandMarkets predicts that the AI agent market size will soar from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $47.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.8%.

◎ The second category, the frontier of computing and connectivity, can be understood as the "skeleton" of AI and the digital world, including specific application semiconductors, advanced connectivity technologies, cloud and edge computing, immersive reality technologies, digital trust and cybersecurity, and quantum technologies.

Among these, specific application semiconductors are highlighted as another important trend in the report. These chips, tailored for specific AI tasks, are becoming the "new oil" of the tech world—holding the highest number of patents among all technology trends and attracting $7.5 billion in investment last year.

At the same time, the development of AI has an insatiable thirst for the computing power behind it, which relies on the trend of cloud and edge computing. McKinsey's research indicates that by 2030, global demand for data center capacity may approach three times what it is today, with about 70% of that demand coming from AI workloads.

Additionally, in terms of advanced connectivity technologies, 5G has covered 2.25 billion users globally, with China leading the world in the deployment of standalone 5G networks, while 6G is on the way, ready to bring new skills like "sensing." In the field of immersive reality technologies, AR/VR has moved from gaming to medical and industrial design, with devices like Apple Vision Pro and Meta Quest redefining human-computer interaction; in the quantum technology field, although still at the forefront, giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft have made key breakthroughs in error correction and stability.

These technologies are like the stations and roads along the ancient Silk Road; while they do not directly produce goods, they determine the scale and boundaries of commerce.

◎ The third category, advanced engineering, includes future robotics technologies, future mobility, future biotechnology, future space technologies, and future energy and sustainable technologies. They are responsible for the "physicalization" of digital capabilities, bringing technology out of the screen.

Over the past sixty years, robots have gradually become a staple in advanced manufacturing, with over four million industrial robots currently working in environments like automotive factories. Meanwhile, driven by AI, physical robotics technology has recently entered broader fields such as airports, large stores, and restaurants. McKinsey partner Ani Kelkar predicts that by 2040, the market size for robotics could reach approximately $900 billion.

In the field of future mobility, China's electric vehicle market has grown against the trend by 36%, with autonomous driving, drone delivery, and air taxis moving from concept to pilot projects, even achieving commercial implementation. It is expected that by 2034, the commercial drone delivery market will reach $29 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 40%.

Future biotechnology technologies aim to use technology (such as gene editing and synthetic biology) to improve health and human functions, reshape the food value chain, and create innovative products. For example, the gene editing technology CRISPR has received FDA approval for the first time, while AI is significantly reducing the cost and time of new drug development. The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to three researchers who used AI to predict existing protein structures and design new proteins.

In the field of future energy and sustainable technologies, China not only dominates global photovoltaic manufacturing but also accounts for 60% of global hydrogen electrolyzer production. Additionally, nuclear energy is gaining attention for its ability to provide stable baseload power, with 31 countries committing to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050.

Six Major Trends Regarding These Technologies

Through the foresight of these 13 cutting-edge technology trends, McKinsey also summarizes six major trends in the report, which can serve as a reference for our focus on these technologies.

① The Rise of Autonomous Systems

Systems are no longer just executing commands; they can learn, adapt, and collaborate.

When AI agents can autonomously plan workflows, when robots can adapt to unfamiliar environments, and when autonomous vehicles can navigate complex urban conditions, we must consider: where does human unique value lie? The answer may be: in creativity, ethical judgment, and strategic vision—qualities that are difficult for machines to replicate.

② New Human-Machine Collaboration Models

Human-computer interaction is entering a new stage characterized by more natural interfaces, multimodal inputs, and adaptive intelligence, which will gradually blur the boundaries between "operators" and "co-creators."

From immersive training environments and haptic robotics technologies to voice-driven "co-pilots" and sensor-wearable devices, technology is responding more accurately to human intentions and behaviors. This evolution shifts the positioning of human-machine relationships from "machines replacing humans" to "machines enhancing human" capabilities.

③ Challenges of Scalable Applications

The surge in demand for compute-intensive workloads (especially from AI agents, future robotics, and immersive reality technologies) is placing new pressures on global infrastructure. However, the reality is: tight power supply, fragile chip supply chains, and lengthy data center construction cycles…

This means that the scalable application of cutting-edge technologies requires not only solving issues related to technical architecture and efficient design but also addressing the complex realities of talent, policy, and execution. This reminds us that the prosperity of the digital world relies on the support of the physical world.

④ Regional and National Competition

Undeniably, control over key technologies has become the focal point of global competition. The competition between China and the U.S. in fields like chips, AI, and quantum computing is intensifying, while Europe is attempting to establish its digital sovereignty through regulations like the "AI Act."

Technology is no longer a borderless public good; it has become the cornerstone of national security and a symbol of economic sovereignty. In this context, global technological cooperation faces challenges, but it also creates opportunities for regions to develop their unique advantages.

⑤ Parallel Development of Scale and Specialization

Innovations in cloud services and advanced connectivity technologies are driving the development of both scale and specialization. On one hand, we see the rapid expansion of general model training infrastructure in large, energy-intensive data centers; on the other hand, we observe accelerated innovation on the "edge," with low-power technologies being embedded in smartphones, cars, home control systems, and industrial equipment.

This dual-track development has led to the emergence of large language models with astonishing parameter counts, as well as an increasing richness of domain-specific AI tools that can operate in almost any scenario.

⑥ The Necessity of Responsible Innovation

As technology becomes increasingly powerful and personalized, trust is becoming a key barrier to technology adoption. Companies are facing growing pressure to prove that their AI models, gene editing technologies, or immersive platforms are transparent, fair, and accountable.

Ethics is no longer just about making the right choices; it has become a strategic lever in the deployment process—it can accelerate or hinder scaling, investment decisions, and long-term impacts.

Where is the capital and talent flowing?

Finally, let's discuss the "financial landscape" and "talent landscape" of these cutting-edge technologies to see where capital and talent are converging.

In 2024, the investment market for these 13 cutting-edge technologies is warming up, with AI and cloud and edge computing achieving relatively outstanding "results" in both investment scale and growth rate.

In terms of absolute capital concentration, the top five most "money-making" cutting-edge technologies in 2024 are: future energy and sustainable technologies ($223.2 billion), future mobility ($131.6 billion), AI ($124.3 billion), cloud and edge computing ($80.8 billion), and digital trust and cybersecurity ($77.8 billion).

Regarding growth momentum, AI agent technology is "booming," with investment surging by 1562% in 2024; future biotechnology and cloud and edge computing technologies have seen financing growth for two consecutive years; investments in AI and future robotics technologies have rebounded to levels higher than two years ago after a brief decline.

It is worth mentioning that alongside the flow of capital, a silent talent competition has also begun.

McKinsey's report indicates that, based on recruitment data, the demand for positions in six cutting-edge technologies is increasing in 2024, with the demand for AI agent positions skyrocketing by 985%, and the demand for AI and specific application semiconductor positions growing by 35% and 22%, respectively. Specifically, software engineers are among the most sought-after positions.

Notably, these talent skill demands reveal a harsh reality: the speed of technological evolution far exceeds the pace of talent cultivation. In the two hottest technology fields, AI and specific application semiconductors, the imbalance between supply and demand for talent is particularly evident.

The demand for data scientists in AI is the most urgent, with a talent supply-demand ratio of only 0.5 (meaning two positions are competing for one talent), indicating that companies are vying for individuals who can process data and build models using Python. In the specific application semiconductor field, the situation is even more extreme—experts proficient in GPU architecture and machine learning hardware have a supply-demand ratio as low as 0.1, equivalent to ten positions waiting for one suitable candidate.

In the fields of future robotics technology and future biotechnology, which are interdisciplinary, there is a call for a new type of "cross-disciplinary talent." The future robotics technology field requires both mechanical engineers and AI/software engineering experts, with a talent demand ratio of 0.2 for those skilled in artificial intelligence. In future biotechnology, a talent who can design robotic arms and program them for intelligent grasping is even scarcer.

In the fields of future energy and sustainable technologies and future space technologies, which represent humanity's future, the "talent shortage" is even more pronounced. For example, the demand-supply ratio for talents with "green skills," including knowledge in clean energy and sustainable development, is below 0.1. This means that for every ten related positions, there may be fewer than one qualified applicant. Although the overall number of positions in future space technology is adjusting, the demand for software engineers and Python experts remains strong, as vast amounts of satellite data need to be processed and analyzed daily.

These data also indicate that future talent cultivation will require more than just coding skills; "technology + scenarios," "software + hardware," and "algorithms + ethics" composite talents will become the most scarce resources in the next decade.

Conclusion

Looking back, standing at the threshold of this technological era, China finds itself in a complex and delicate position.

In terms of application, our achievements are remarkable: the widespread coverage of 5G networks, the high penetration rate of electric vehicles, the dominance in photovoltaic manufacturing, and the leading commercial applications of drones—all of these are tangible "Chinese advantages." However, at the foundational level, risks of "bottlenecks" still exist in areas such as semiconductor manufacturing, underlying AI models, quantum computing, and original biopharmaceutical technologies.

The greatest insight from McKinsey's report may be that future competition will no longer be about breakthroughs in individual technologies, but rather about competition in ecosystems, talent systems, and values.

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