Yesterday, Bitcoin surged from 89,000 to 93,000, rebounding by 4,000 points.
As a result, I received many similar messages over the past two days:
"Isn't this already the bottom accumulation zone?"
"Can't short anymore, right?"
"Is it time to catch the reversal?"
"Is a big rebound about to come at this position?"
However, if we look at the objective price action:
There is still no clear reversal signal.
My thinking remains: at the rebound high, continue to focus on shorting in the short term.
- Should we close short positions? Should we switch to long?
This is also the most frequently asked question.
Regarding whether to continue holding your short positions, I cannot provide personalized advice; I can only offer a perspective from a structural standpoint. How to operate still depends on your own position and risk assessment.
Let's first look at the structure, then the logic.
- Why is everyone eager to see a reversal?
In simple terms:
Because this rebound has 4,000 points, it looks quite significant.
But we have always said:
A "V reversal" at the bottom is very difficult to directly turn the direction in a bearish trend, unless there is a surge in demand and a breakout in buying.
Otherwise, in most cases, it is just an adjustment within a trend.
- Clearer with case studies
Earlier phase: typical "micro rebound" → adjustment → further decline
Previously, the market also had a "decent rise" at the bottom, and I had reminded:
This kind of rebound belongs to a normal pullback in a bearish trend; do not chase long at high positions.
Later, the market continued to move downwards, and the bearish structure persisted.
Core conclusion:
A single segment rise = insufficient to form a reversal structure.
A reversal must see a "two-segment rise," which is a structure of continuously rising highs and lows.
Later phase: bottom double test → only then is there a chance to initiate a reversal
The second situation is slightly more complex:
The bottom first makes a micro rebound
Retests the previous low to form a "double test"
If the double test does not break → there is a chance to form an intermediate structure
Then the upward segment starts
The downward retest hits the mid-axis of the range, then breaks upward
The bullish structure is officially established
In this case, if you buy on the left side during the "double test" and place the stop loss at the previous low, it can be attempted, but there are also risks.
- So what type does the current market belong to?
It is actually very clear:
Currently, there is only a single segment rise
We have not seen a double test
And there is no structure that breaks the previous high
So it cannot be regarded as a reversal yet.
The key points we need to pay attention to next are:
Will it retest the previous low?
Will the previous low hold?
Can it then break the previous high to form a reversal?
Before these signals appear, the rebound can only be understood as an adjustment phase.
- Two major resistances faced after a reversal (very critical)
Even if a reversal really occurs later, the bulls must face:
① First resistance zone: 96,000 - 97,000
② Second resistance zone: 102,000 - 103,000
The second resistance is more critical because:
It corresponds to the weekly 50 moving average
It is the mid-axis of the previous adjustment phase
It is also the lowest end of the sharp drop's lower shadow
So even if the reversal is successful, these positions can easily see another adjustment.
- Is the bottom in now? The answer is very clear
Currently, there is no structure proving that the bottom has been reached.
Many people feel that "it has dropped enough" is actually more of a subjective judgment rather than a structural signal.
Trading is not about who can "guess the bottom" accurately,
but about who can act according to the structure, seeing what is there and doing what is necessary.
Follow me, join the community, and let's improve together. The article is published with a delay and is for reference only.
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