Author: haotian

After chatting with some Builders, I unexpectedly found that they are not pessimistic about the arrival of a bear market; instead, they hope that the "deep bear" can last longer. Why? I tried to speculate on their mindset:

1) From the "pseudo-innovation" craze of 2023, to the BTC layer2 narrative where Eastern and Western VCs do not take over from each other, to the AI Agent MEME asset issuance narrative that surged on Solana, and then to the series of artificial bull markets initiated by BN, the entire bull market has been fragmented into waves of short-lived attention nodes: lively but brief, leaving a mess behind.

One could argue that the "real bull" has come from the future, or that the "fake bull" has never left, but the "super bull" that everyone was familiar with, such as DeFi Summer and the NFT breakout that could drive off-chain growth through on-chain innovation, has become unattainable.

2) What makes Builders most desperate is that when the voices promoting the MEME Super Cycle dominate, MEME culture has evolved into a "narrative black hole," crazily consuming the entire market's attention on "technological innovation."

Imagine, when PumpFun births tens of thousands of dog MEME coins every day, and a MEME project can easily reach a market cap of 100M or even 2B, everyone has become accustomed to the thrill of zero-sum PVP games, completely lacking the patience to understand what decentralized Sequencer means, what Intent execution networks are, or what ZK Coprocessors are. This has caused many long-term Builders to completely lose their "sense of existence."

3) Even more critically, due to the short exit window with abundant liquidity, projects that are built steadily are delayed because of established plans like Roadmap and Tokenomics design, while some VC projects designed solely for narrative or self-created projects within exchanges will do everything possible to siphon off the liquidity that originally belonged to "value projects."

By the time the real narrative projects are built, the market has already run out of liquidity, and the TGE immediately breaks, forcing investors to resort to market manipulation and insider trading, bearing all the blame and exiting in the most undignified way. It is important to know that without abundant liquidity and favorable conditions, the probability of a price surge being justified is extremely low.

4) The key point is that true technological innovation requires a long time cycle to validate and achieve PMF, but the changing market environment is fundamentally unfavorable for innovation to occur. The harsh reality is that a project takes at least 2-3 years, or even spans multiple cycles, to truly establish brand barriers from technical breakthroughs to product refinement and ecological landing. However, in the new environment, with only a 3-month time window, everyone is rushing to boost TVL, create hype, and push for TGE; who still has the patience to watch a project slowly validate its PMF?

Thus, the market has helplessly fallen into an absurd cycle: true innovation needs time, but the market does not allow for it; those who insist on long-termism are eliminated, while those who take shortcuts can cash out and leave.

In conclusion, I finally understand that what they have always hoped for is not a powerless "deep bear," but to completely eliminate the "noise bull" that hinders true innovation.

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