In the midst of strategizing, we can win from a thousand miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.
From historical data:
From 1995 to 1996, the U.S. government was shut down for 21 days, and the S&P rose about 4.0% in the month following the shutdown.
In 2013, the U.S. government was shut down for 17 days, and it rose about 4.5% in the following month.
From 2018 to 2019, there was a record 35-day shutdown, and the S&P rose 5% in the month after it ended.
Overall, since 1990, after six major shutdowns in the U.S., the S&P has averaged a rise of 1% to 4% in one month and 3% to 7% in three months.
Historical examples may not always be correct, but I feel this time may not be an exception, so Lin Chao has always judged that the bull market has not left, of course, this is just my personal judgment.
But looking back at the present, the fact is that both the fear and greed index are below 15, indicating extreme fear.
Generally speaking, unless it is an irreversible downturn (for example, a project being completely stolen), selling in extreme fear is likely not a good idea; after extreme decline comes prosperity.
At the same time, we are in a rate-cutting cycle, which is a visible easing cycle.
However, there are too many initial bear signals now: on October 11, the largest liquidation in history, stablecoins in the mid and tail sectors collapsing, exorbitant ICOs, technical indicators substantially breaking below MA200, briefly falling below MA365, Bitcoin losing the 100,000 mark, and the four-year cycle has arrived, etc. From the facts, the outlook is pessimistic and desperate.
It can only be said that at this position, there is a significant divergence between bulls and bears, which may be a dividing line.
Including U.S. stocks making lower highs, and BTC directly breaking below previous lows.
The current market situation is just as Lin Chao mentioned before; it hasn't fully dropped yet. When will it fully drop? I don't know. I can only mechanically execute the previous plan, holding a small amount of spot, and then using the same position to layout contract short positions, relying solely on technical indicators to guide my daily trading.
There are reasons to be bullish, and naturally, there are reasons to be bearish, but regardless of being bullish or bearish, I will clearly state my preconditions; the entangled market is also where people's hearts are entangled.
The ten-thousand integer mark has always been a key observation area. This morning's slide-like movement confirms that the demand for BTC at 100,000 is very low, and we need to look for support below. Simply put, the decline is still unstoppable.
In fact, it is possible to make money in a bear market; traders are not afraid of the market moving up or down, but are afraid of stagnant waters with no volatility.
If you are in a state of confusion—unable to understand technology, not knowing how to read the market, unsure when to enter, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common problems for retail investors. Lin Chao can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it is better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable.
The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and making good asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or the profits and losses of a moment, but rather planning before action and knowing when to stop to gain.
The global market is ever-changing, and the world is a whole. Follow Lin Chao to gain a top-tier global financial perspective.
This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks; invest cautiously!
For real-time consultation, feel free to follow the public account: Lin Chao on Cryptocurrency.
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