Glassnode analysts indicate that the recent selling pressure from Bitcoin whales is a normal occurrence in the later stages of the crypto cycle, and there is no need for increased concern compared to the past.
On Thursday, a major Bitcoin whale began to sell. Blockchain analysis platform Arkham reported that a wallet identified as belonging to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 Bitcoins, worth $237 million, to the crypto exchange Kraken.
This further confirms the trend that several Bitcoin whales seem to be gradually exiting the cryptocurrency market.
However, Glassnode analysts pointed out that terms like "OG whales dumping" or "Bitcoin silent IPO" are far from being as simple as they appear.
Glassnode stated that looking at the monthly average spending of long-term holders, the daily inflow has increased from 12,000 Bitcoins at the beginning of July to about 26,000 on Thursday, reflecting a distributed and even pattern, indicating that it is not "OGs concentrated dumping, but rather normal behavior in a bull market."
"Long-term holders have been realizing profits in this cycle, just as they have in every previous cycle," Glassnode added.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, stated that the sales by whales represent a structured cyclical flow, a stable rotation of profits rather than panic, typically indicating a late-stage cycle, while realized gains increase and liquidity remains strong.
However, Liu noted that this "late-cycle" phase does not necessarily mean the market has peaked, as long as there are buyers to absorb the new supply.
"Late-cycle does not mean the market is capped; rather, momentum has cooled, with macro factors and liquidity steering the ship. The fading expectations of interest rate cuts and short-term weakness have slowed the upward movement rather than sinking it," Liu said.
As the market continues to decline, sentiment in the crypto market is leaning towards panic. Analysts attribute this to a series of macroeconomic factors, such as traders shifting to asset allocations more sensitive to economic policies and credit flows.
Charlie Sherry, CFO of Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, stated that the impact of whale selling alone is usually limited, but the current lack of sufficient buyers to absorb the selling is indeed worth noting.
However, he still believes it is too early to assert whether a peak has been reached, although that possibility exists.
Historically, market tops have occurred roughly every four years. For example, December 2017 was about 1,067 days from the previous low; November 2021 was about 1,058 days from the prior low.
Sherry noted, "The most recent historical peak occurred on October 6, 2025, exactly 1,050 days from the previous low. From this perspective, this cycle may have already peaked, and we are entering the early stages of a bear market."
At the same time, Sherry pointed out that "the four-year cycle theory is not absolute," as the sample size is limited, and Bitcoin is continuously evolving due to new demands such as ETFs and corporate treasuries.
"These buyers do not operate according to traditional cycles and do not follow a four-year rhythm. Their interest has been weak recently, but the situation could change at any time," he said.
Related: Coinbase states that rewards tied to stablecoin payments are "not in the spirit of America."
Original: “Stay Calm: Bitcoin (BTC) Whales Are Selling, But This Is Not a ‘Sudden Exit’”
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