🎯 Event Review

Recently, the ETH market experienced severe fluctuations, with the price dropping from around $3447 to below key support levels in just a few hours. There was a significant amount of high-leverage trading and institutional whale operations in the market, leading to forced liquidations as some large holders hit their liquidation lines, resulting in continuous selling pressure and causing panic withdrawals. At the same time, the prolonged government shutdown in the United States led to the absence of key economic data (such as CPI and employment data), exacerbating the uncertainty in the macro environment, which significantly reduced market risk appetite and further triggered selling pressure. The interaction of these two factors caused the ETH price to drop by 6.35% within 151 minutes, with the current price hovering around $3244.

⏰ Timeline

• 23:10 (November 13): ETH stabilized around $3441–$3447, with long positions beginning to approach liquidation risk. Some institutional whales closed positions for profit and moved to new addresses to continue holding, leading to initial market panic.
• 23:10 to 02:15 (approximately 151 minutes): Driven by high-leverage liquidations and the chain reaction of forced liquidations, the ETH price plummeted from a high of around $3223, with a cumulative drop of about 6.35%.
• 01:04 (November 14): The U.S. government announced the resumption of operations, theoretically releasing some liquidity, but the long-term absence of data and policy uncertainty failed to effectively boost market sentiment.
• 02:15 (November 14): Statistics showed that the ETH price briefly rebounded to around $3244, confirming that the market faced significant selling pressure and liquidation effects during the previous decline.

🔍 Cause Analysis

Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty

• Prolonged Government Shutdown Impact
  　The prolonged government shutdown in the United States prevented the timely release of key economic indicators, leading to market doubts about the overall economic outlook. Liquidity supply tightened at one point, and coupled with uncertainties regarding future interest rate policies and expectations for rate cuts, investors adopted a wait-and-see strategy.

High-Leverage Trading and Institutional Liquidation Effects

• Leverage Position Risk Eruption
  　Multiple reports indicated that some institutions and whales were using high leverage for ETH position operations. When prices retraced to key support levels, forced liquidation events occurred frequently. This large-scale position liquidation not only created direct selling pressure but also triggered a series of chain reactions, further exacerbating the market decline.

📈 Technical Analysis

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick chart data of Binance USDT perpetual contracts:

• Price Trends and Volatility Indicators
  　The current price is running along the lower Bollinger Band, with the KDJ indicator in the oversold region, and the RSI also indicating that the market may be oversold, suggesting a potential short-term rebound opportunity. However, at the same time, the MACD histogram continues to narrow, indicating that the downward momentum remains strong.

• Moving Averages and Price Structure
  　The price is below the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, as well as EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 moving averages, which are in a bearish arrangement, reinforcing the judgment of a strong downward trend. The EMA20 slope is sharply downward (approximately -1.75%), further validating the strong downward momentum.

• Trading Volume and OBV Indicator
  　Short-term trading volume increased by 36.15%, indicating a rise in market activity, but the OBV indicator has been declining, showing strong selling pressure. Both short-term and medium-term average volumes are in a bullish arrangement, but they have not managed to reverse the overall downward price trend.

• Candlestick Patterns
  　There have been consecutive appearances of candlestick patterns similar to "three black crows"—with consecutive bearish candles closing at lower prices, reinforcing the bearish signal.

🔮 Market Outlook

In the current environment of severe fluctuations, the market faces multiple challenges:

• Potential for Short-Term Rebound
  　Some technical indicators (such as the oversold RSI and KDJ) suggest that the market may experience a brief rebound, but the extent and sustainability of the rebound remain constrained by overall bearish sentiment and ongoing selling pressure.

• Medium to Long-Term Risks Still Exist
  　Until macro policy and liquidity uncertainties are fully resolved, along with ongoing liquidation effects and high leverage risks, the market may still lean towards a downward trend. Investors need to pay attention to updates on U.S. economic data, government policy trends, and the dynamics of high-leverage position liquidations.

• Cautious Operations and Risk Control First
  　It is recommended that investors look for opportunities to buy on dips during short-term technical rebounds, but it is essential to set stop-loss and take-profit levels to prevent significant losses due to severe fluctuations. Additionally, attention should be paid to ETH's behavior near key support levels, waiting for trend stabilization before gradually building positions.

Overall, ETH is currently experiencing a severe market shakeout, reflecting both technical weakness and the dual pressures of macro environment and high leverage risks. The future trend will require close attention to the compensatory effects of economic data and shifts in market sentiment.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。