As the global economy faces multiple uncertainties and the recent crisis of a U.S. government "shutdown" has just been resolved, debates within the Federal Reserve regarding the future direction of monetary policy have intensified. On November 12, 2025, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos revealed that there are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding whether persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market poses a greater threat. Such a level of disagreement has been nearly unprecedented during Fed Chair Powell's nearly eight-year tenure. Although investors believe there is still a high likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting, this division complicates plans that seemed feasible less than two months ago. This casts a shadow over Bitcoin's recovery following the resolution of the government "shutdown," as its sustainability is now in question, with the market closely watching the Fed's final decision at the December meeting.
- Significant Divisions Within the Federal Reserve: Shadows Over Rate Cuts
Nick Timiraos's report reveals serious divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy.
Focus of Disagreement: Officials are divided on whether persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market poses a greater threat. Such a level of disagreement has been nearly unprecedented during Fed Chair Powell's nearly eight-year tenure.
Complications for Rate Cut Plans: Although investors believe there is still a high likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting, this division complicates plans that seemed feasible less than two months ago.
Uncertainty Over December Rate Cuts: It remains uncertain whether officials will cut rates again at the December meeting. New data may help quell the debate. Some officials believe that the December and January meetings can largely substitute for each other, making the timeline for a year-end rate cut seem somewhat deliberate. Another possibility is that a rate cut in December could be accompanied by guidance that sets a higher threshold for subsequent cuts.
Dovish Voices: On November 11, Fed Governor Milan Zhou stated that given the softening labor market and declining inflation, the Fed should lower rates by 50 basis points in December. He believes that a 25 basis point cut is the "minimum appropriate action."
Hawkish Voices: On November 10, Fed's Musalem stated that he expects the U.S. economy to rebound strongly in early next year, highlighting the need for officials to be cautious about additional rate cuts. He reiterated his view that current Fed policy is close to a level that no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation and emphasized that there is limited room for further cuts; otherwise, monetary policy would become excessively loose.
- Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Recovery: Market Sentiment Weak, Institutional Funds on the Sidelines
Buoyed by optimistic sentiment from the U.S. government funding agreement, Bitcoin returned to $106,000 after failing to drop below $100,000 multiple times. However, the sustainability of this rebound remains challenged.
Market Weakness: After briefly breaking above $107,000 on Monday, Bitcoin fell back below $105,000, highlighting that market sentiment remains weak after experiencing widespread sell-offs that evaporated billions in market value.
OG Sell-offs and ETF Outflows: This decline is partly due to large holders taking profits near this year's highs and the lingering unease following the liquidation event in early October. Funds flowing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) show little enthusiasm. On Monday, despite a rise in the stock and credit markets following Washington's actions to end the government shutdown, Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. attracted only $1 million in net inflows.
Technical Resistance: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains pinned below its 200-day moving average, currently around $110,000—analysts believe this is a key threshold for any sustained upward movement.
Long-term Holders Distributing: Analyst Murphy noted that from July 7, 2025, to today, the long-term holder (LTH) group has reduced its BTC holdings by a total of 363,000 coins. However, the actual distribution scale is much larger. Statistics show that "LTHs have actually distributed a total of 2.57 million BTC during this period, meaning that 13% of the total circulating supply was sold in just four months."
Strong Demand Side: However, in terms of BTC's price, there is only a $2,000 difference between July 7, 2025, and now. The market has faced significant selling pressure, yet the price has not been crushed, indicating that the demand side corresponding to the excess supply is also strong. Therefore, Murphy believes the current market is still in a bull market, rather than at the beginning of a bear market.
- Bitcoin Market Cycles and Liquidity: Macroeconomic Environment and Technical Analysis
Analysts interpret the future direction of the Bitcoin market from multiple dimensions, including cycles, liquidity, and technical analysis.
Cycles: Bitcoin has ended its traditional four-year cycle and entered the early stages of a bear market, with the recent explosive growth of many established altcoins confirming this. However, this bear market cycle may be significantly shortened due to the arrival of the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market.
Liquidity (Expectations): Recently, due to the government shutdown and ongoing balance sheet reduction, liquidity in the U.S. has been very tight. However, with the impending end of the government shutdown, this will improve the recent liquidity situation, leading to a rapid market rebound. But Matrixport believes this is merely an improvement and does not constitute the conditions for a continued bull market. Starting in December, the Fed will likely stop reducing its balance sheet and may even begin to expand it again, which will significantly improve the liquidity environment for both the stock market and Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin is currently in a large-scale fourth wave adjustment, which typically involves horizontal adjustments, especially when the second wave is a steep adjustment. This is the reason analysts expect Bitcoin to see horizontal adjustments in the coming months, and combined with the analysis of cycles and liquidity, it does not support a significant decline in Bitcoin.
Conclusion:
The serious divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the December rate cut bring a complex and uncertain macro backdrop to the cryptocurrency market. Although Bitcoin has rebounded following the resolution of the government "shutdown," its sustainability remains challenged. With the Fed's policy shrouded in uncertainty, ongoing sell-offs by OGs, ETF fund outflows, and the impact of key technical resistance levels, what changes will the Web3 market face? The market is closely watching the Fed's final decision, as well as the resonance verification of macro catalysts with the funding and fundamental aspects.
Related Reading: Fed Governor Calls for a 50 Basis Point Rate Cut in December, Bitcoin (BTC) Rebound Sustainability Still to Be Verified
Original: “Fed Whisperer Reveals Internal Split Over Rate Cuts, Can Bitcoin (BTC) Hold Its Rebound?”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
