As we get closer to the launch of MegaETH, the attention and TVL of Cap will continue to grow after its official launch.

Author: Chef Goose

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

The purpose of this article is not to teach you about Cap, but rather to make a bold and possibly inaccurate speculation, focusing on the first points program of MegaETH. Cap is an innovative stablecoin protocol—more details about it can be explained at another time, or you can watch @phtevenstrong's recently released video in this article.

Cap is the first project to be included in MegaMafia (the accelerator project of @megaeth). They have already launched on the Ethereum network and are running a points program.

As for why they chose to launch on Ethereum, let's hear the explanation from founder @Benjamin918_:

This points program is called the Cap Frontier Program and started operating on August 18. If you want to know more details, you can refer to the following related articles:

• Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #1 (Start date: August 18)

• Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #2 (Start date: September 1)

• Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #3 (Start date: October 13)

Available Data

So, how much is a point worth?

Let's start with an overview of the existing data:

According to the Dune data dashboard, as of the time of writing this article, 115,947,711,804 Caps have been distributed.

Phase 1 (Epoch #1) started on August 18—this program has been running for 71 days.

An average of 1,633,066,363 points are distributed daily.

The program is expected to last until January 18, 2026 (but may end early based on internal metrics).

This means there are 83 days left for the program to run.

Bold Speculation

Disclaimer: I often make mathematical errors, and I hope I don't this time.

Speculating based on the following assumptions:

• The program will last until January 18, 2026

• The daily point distribution rate remains constant

Based on these assumptions, the total number of points will reach approximately 250,000,000,000.

With this, we can explore different scenarios through the following table:

Providing an Excel sheet to make my mathematical speculation look more credible.

For those who are not familiar with these tables, here is how to use it:

• The rows represent the proportion of airdrop supply that participants in the Cap Frontier Program will receive. Generally, a generous airdrop ratio is around 20%-30%.

• The columns represent the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the token at launch. Frankly, I don't have much confidence in the valuation expectations, so I set a wide range of values. As for the specific values, I will leave that to smarter people to speculate boldly.

So, how much is it worth?

Currently, the dollar value of each point is not high—this is due to the large number of points distributed. So, let's see what it might look like in different scenarios:

Let's look at it from another angle:

• Currently, it takes 150 million points to enter the top 1%

• Currently, it takes 5.9 million points to enter the top 10%

I personally expect that as we get closer to the launch of MegaETH, the attention and total value locked (TVL) of @capmoney_ will continue to grow after its official launch.

Should I invest in Cap?

I personally belong to the top 1% in the points program, so I may be biased, but I think you should consider it. Here are my reasons:

• Talented team

• Excellent creativity and execution

• More than half of the program time remains (so, it's not too late for you)

• Community attention is increasing (current total value locked is $350 million)

• Opportunity to engage with the MegaETH ecosystem. Users of Cap are certainly on the radar of MegaETH and other projects in the ecosystem. The first signal is that Cap users have a better chance of participating in public offerings! You definitely don't want to miss the next opportunity!

• A little-known quality project, almost no one has heard of Cap, so its potential may not have been fully tapped.

Even if you can't participate in the public sale this week, nothing stops you from positioning yourself in the @megaeth ecosystem in advance.

Thank you for your time reading.

P.S. Thanks to @0xasrequired for allowing me to use his iconic "bold speculation" tag.

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