This article is reprinted with permission from "Talking Outside the Box," and the copyright belongs to the original author.

Today (10.30), the market news is quite lively. On one hand, the Federal Reserve continues to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points (bringing the federal funds target rate down to 3.75%-4%), and on the other hand, there is the China-U.S. trade meeting.

We have discussed the rate cut and the end of QT in previous articles. This rate cut was a "done deal," and although it is a positive development, it has largely been priced in by the market. However, from Powell's speech, it seems that FOMC members currently have some disagreements regarding a rate cut in December, which may be one of the reasons for market volatility.

In addition, many investors may also be concerned that the China-U.S. trade negotiations could lead to new uncertainties, which further obscures the expected effects of the rate cut.

Before the trade meeting today, Trump posted on his TruthSocial, stating that he has instructed relevant departments to "immediately" begin nuclear weapons testing (note: this is likely just Trump's usual preemptive bluster). As shown in the image below.

After the meeting, Trump quickly announced that the U.S. and China have reached a consensus on many issues (note: this is also preemptive bluster; we need to wait for official announcements regarding specific implementation details). As shown in the image below.

Regarding the results of the negotiations at the end of this month, we have discussed in previous articles that it is highly likely that a "good" outcome will be achieved by the end of this month. As shown in the image below.

Of course, we believe that this diplomatic easing is more of a positive sentiment for the market rather than a financial benefit. This means that funds may not immediately flow into the market unless both parties formally announce or sign a clear agreement or plan. Only substantial implementation can stimulate the financial aspect; otherwise, in the short term, funds will likely remain cautious. Even speculative investments will prioritize the more mature U.S. stock market over the higher-risk cryptocurrency market.

On a macro level, the Federal Reserve's policies and the China-U.S. negotiations are influencing market expectations. However, as individual investors, we should focus more on how to better adjust our investment mindset and trading strategies.

The Federal Reserve has continued to cut rates as expected, and Trump has boasted that he has reached many "wonderful" agreements with China. Logically, the market should be satisfied, but why isn't Bitcoin rising today?

If market fluctuations were so easy to predict, there would likely be no poor people in this market.

In recent articles, we have discussed many macro topics. Although the overall macroeconomic trend has not changed significantly, short-term market fluctuations can still surprise many. I remember discussing similar issues in previous series of articles; the market is more of a behavior based on expectations. Understanding market behavior requires not only understanding what is happening now but also understanding what the market's expectations were before.

The 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October was always anticipated. The market also expected another rate cut in December, but Powell's speech has cast doubt on that expectation. This introduces uncertainty for the short-term market. Through the Fed's observation tools, we can see that a few days ago (on October 22), the expected probability of a rate cut in December was 97.4%, but after today's Federal Reserve press conference, that probability has dropped to 70.4%. As shown in the image below.

Additionally, many people interpreted Powell's speech today as a hawkish stance, but we believe that from the content of Powell's speech, it does not seem to represent a shift in stance. Instead, it serves as a reminder to the market (investors) that the Federal Reserve will continue to proceed at its own pace, determining the frequency of rate cuts based on U.S. economic data rather than adopting aggressive easing policies as the market or Trump would like.

Originally, people believed that the Federal Reserve's easing policies would continue as expected, but Powell's latest answer is ambiguous. In this situation, short-term sentiment will certainly be affected. It would be fortunate if Bitcoin does not fall (a sideways movement or slight correction would be more reasonable); how can we expect it to rise immediately?

Moreover, from a funding perspective, the current stagnation is not necessarily a bad thing. In the short term, it may simply reflect a temporary cautious choice regarding risk management. We still maintain the viewpoint from previous articles: Bitcoin may still have a rebound opportunity before the end of the year (or in the first quarter of next year).

In short, short-term prices are unpredictable, but if you are a long-term investor, patience remains a core element of position management.

I remember when I first started writing for the public account, I thought of many pieces of advice to give to newcomers in the field, and I ultimately summarized it into eight words: Preserve your capital, avoid what you don't understand. Later, these eight words frequently appeared in articles, and those who have followed "Talking Outside the Box" for a while should be familiar with them.

Some people compare investing in this field to gambling, while others liken it to a game. Regardless of whether it's gambling or a game, if we want to achieve results in a field, it's best to find a game that suits our specific advantages (niche track). You should focus only on those games that you can repeatedly learn and research, rather than blindly following others' operations or so-called news hotspots.

In a field that seems easy to get rich in, playing a game that is not suitable for you is the main cause of most tragedies. Over the years, I have seen too many people who, through frequent trading or leveraged contracts, not only lost all their capital but also wasted their best time, eventually disappearing from the market as the game rapidly evolved.

In the past two years, I have noticed that more and more people are lamenting that making money in this field has become increasingly difficult. I believe this is a necessary law of development because, as the number of participants increases, more highly skilled individuals (including institutions) enter the market, and various knowledge continues to accumulate and spread. People need to keep learning. When something starts to become relatively competitive, previous so-called advantages will gradually weaken, and the market will generally become a winner-takes-all scenario, which is certainly not friendly to ordinary retail investors.

Many people often attribute their inability to seize opportunities to the market itself, to mishearing someone's recommendation, or directly to their own bad luck. However, we should reflect on ourselves. In this market, there are many participants who are smarter and more execution-oriented than you, and they may not be able to seize every opportunity. So why should you be able to? Opportunities are sometimes not about seizing but about waiting or preparing in advance. When an opportunity becomes apparent to the public, it is often when smart traders begin to prepare to withdraw in batches.

For instance, from June 2022 to June 2023, Bitcoin fluctuated around $20,000. If you believed there would be another bull market at that time, that period would have been a good time for dollar-cost averaging (preparing in advance). However, based on feedback from comments on our historical articles, it seems that many people did not buy during that time. Similarly, now that Bitcoin has risen to $110,000, with an increase of over five times, the theoretical stage risk is clearly increasing. This should also be the time for you to withdraw in batches. Yet, I find that some people not only do not consider withdrawing but instead buy at high prices, hoping to sell at the peak of $150,000 because some KOL told them Bitcoin would rise to $150,000 this year.

Of course, I also believe that Bitcoin will one day rise to $150,000 or even higher. This means that even if you buy Bitcoin at a high price now and hold it long-term, you can definitely make a profit. It is highly likely to be a risk-free investment. However, the core issue here is: How much risk are you willing to take for this, including time risk and financial utilization risk?

From $110,000 to $150,000, there is about a 36% increase potential, but you also need to consider whether you are prepared for the possibility of being stuck until 2028. If a new phase of bear market begins next year, do you have enough idle funds to continue participating in the market?

In fact, whether it is Bitcoin, which has limited upside, or altcoins/dog coins that have the potential to increase by dozens or hundreds of times, aside from a few exceptions, all other projects (currencies) do not have any issues from an investment/speculation perspective and can be participated in. The key issue lies in: Many people have a significant cognitive bias regarding their risk preferences and market uncertainties.

Only when you can effectively manage the relationship between risk preference and market uncertainty can you be in a position to make money in the market. Those who want to avoid risk, do not want to invest time and effort in research, and still want to easily earn excess returns will ultimately either lose all their capital or play themselves into losses.

The herd mentality is a strong emotional expression on the internet today, but this mentality has both advantages and disadvantages. If you can manage it well, it can help you quickly extract others' successful experiences and replicate them in your strategy. For example, many methods mentioned in our 2024 e-book "Blockchain Methodology" can be optimized or adapted; however, if not managed well, it can lead to your own anxiety or even failure. Everyone's situation is different, and their understanding and preference for risk also vary. Especially in trading operations, we should formulate strategies based on our actual situations rather than blindly repeating and copying.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, we have shared in previous articles that from 2022 to 2024, we still have 70% of our second round of dollar-cost averaged Bitcoin that has not been sold. However, since our previously customized Plan A has basically been achieved, we can hold onto this batch of Bitcoin for another five or ten years without any issues. We are no longer concerned about whether Bitcoin will rise to $150,000 this year.

In summary, if you do not want to suffer significant losses, do not be too discouraged during market lows, and do not be overly complacent during market highs. Balance the relationship between opportunity and risk, always maintain respect for the market, consistently formulate suitable phased exit plans, and always leave operational space for future uncertainties (maintain cash liquidity). This is the core of how we can earn money in this field for the long term.

A few days ago, I noticed that many partners in the group were discussing x402, but the level of discussion has clearly decreased compared to a few days ago.

Due to personal energy constraints, I have not carefully studied the x402 protocol and related projects in recent days; I have only glanced at it briefly. In fact, any new concept's hype, as long as the direction is simple and clear enough, seems not too difficult to drive the price up. For example, "initiated by Coinbase," "involvement of many well-known institutions," "the future of AI payments"… these statements easily evoke associations, naturally leading to some following the trend.

On October 23, the first token based on the x402 protocol, PING, was born on Base. The emergence and surge of this coin quickly made the x402 concept popular. Soon, projects like PAYAI began to attract more and more attention and wallets with their rapid price increases.

Many people may have missed previous inscription opportunities, so when x402 exploded, they hoped to seize this new opportunity. However, based on the current performance of some related token prices, it seems that after a few days, some individuals have quietly found themselves stuck at the peak.

As for whether the x402 protocol truly represents the future of AI payments, I can't say for sure right now. But if you initially treated the related tokens as MemeCoins for speculation, then there shouldn't be any long-term fantasies; otherwise, the one who ultimately gets hurt will still be yourself.

A good concept does not always guarantee sustained good price performance; it also needs time to develop and validate. For example, the concept of Bitcoin is quite good, being dubbed digital gold, yet it still faces significant volatility, not to mention those new concepts that have just emerged a few months ago.

Of course, if you genuinely believe in the future potential of x402 and think it represents the future of AI payments, there's no need to rush. You will still have many opportunities in the future. What you need to do now is add it to your research list and maintain your DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

In summary, whether investing based on macro policies, hoping to seize short-term hotspots for speculation, or betting on certain on-chain projects hoping for a significant return, gambling requires a gambling approach, speculation requires a speculative approach, and investment requires an investment approach… It all depends on how you want to play, how you can play, how you should play, and how you ought to play. Ultimately, all these behavioral decisions are a result of personal risk management and the evolution of cognitive boundaries.

Related: Why hasn't the x402 protocol gone silent after the PING craze subsided? Where does the second wave of upward momentum come from?

Original: “Trump expresses satisfaction… Why didn't macro positives lead to price increases?”

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