Escape GameFi, Accidentally Entering the Duck House.
Author: Zuo Ye
When the world was young, a shared belief ignited a fierce fire globally; Web3 is its last glimmer, but how long can this flame shine?
I should have been discussing how the RFQ architecture's Variational can provide market-making, or cheering for the institutional adoption of stablecoins, or at least writing three major pieces on switching x402 to Meme.
Unfortunately, none of that happened. Recently, I have a persistent feeling that Web3's "creativity" ability is continuously declining:
- The CTO returns to the scene; the CTO Meme is widely circulated, but it no longer feels fresh;
- The Solana conference encounters turmoil; talented individuals in the crypto space emerge, each leading the trend for two or three days;
- The duck market is driven by the masses, the CS cosmetic market is banned, and Facaster is busy with acquisitions.
In short, Web3 seems to have lost its coolness. The term Web 3.0 has been defined by O'Reilly in 2006, Gavin Wood in 2015, and Chris Dixon from A16Z in 2021, just like the term DePIN created through Messari voting; concepts need to be revitalized by the times.
The Null Pointer of Web3
That comfortable armchair, the warm checkered carpet, and the trigger that was not pulled in time.
Crypto, blockchain, and Web 3 form our vague "crypto circle" triad, such as AI X Crypto, RWA pointing to blockchain, and user ownership pointing to Web3.
Readable, writable, and ownable constitute the rhetorical evolution of Web 1.0/2.0/3.0, but Web3 points to the void.
How long has it been since you heard news about GameFi?
- • Elementary school students trading chicken skin
- • College students hoarding CS weapons
- • Adults turning into roasted ducks in farm towns
If we must issue a death certificate for GameFi, the cause of death can only be that the economic stimulus signals accepted by the crypto crowd are too strong, making it hard to be moved by games.
But what does this have to do with ducks? In 2024, a neutral project was initiated, with Bilibili incubating a five-person studio called Carbonated Team. On October 16, "Escape from Duckov" was launched on Steam and the macOS App Store, priced at 58 yuan (51 yuan after discount), with weekly sales of 1 million copies.
Of course, this is far inferior to the miracle of Black Myth, but the public needs such small creative, low-investment, and low-difficulty games to cultivate talent. Such a market structure is healthy enough; the gaming industry needs more than just Battlefield 6 and GTA 6; it also needs Dyson spheres and Escape from Duckov.
Image Caption: Duck Market
Image Source: Bilibili Cyerol:29329360
From the perspective of Web3, Duckov seems very naive. GameFi, which previously raised tens of millions of dollars, should not be unable to produce this. Moreover, while imitating the hardcore nature of "Escape from Tarkov," two routes have emerged:
- PVP search and retreat, online interaction slaughtering everywhere, experiencing the tactical experience of real teams;
- PEV fun, the Duckov team lacks funds to make mobile games, so they can only focus on retreating and collecting.
Within a week of its release, leveraging Steam's Creative Workshop, a Mod competition was launched, and both online features and the duck market appeared. Even single-player games can have trading markets, with infinite funds and infinite output, leading to an economic model that will never go bankrupt, which is more robust than dual tokens or point competitions.
Players still flock in despite not being able to make money, with tens of thousands trading on it, like children playing house. The desire to share is innate; we do not need token stimulation; rather, token stimulation needs players. Homo sapiens evolved through cooperation, never due to external stimuli.
Image Caption: Double Spending Problem
Image Source: Duck Market Comment Section
From the perspective of the crypto circle, the double spending problem has emerged, perfectly suited for blockchain to solve. However, "it's not that the duck market needs to go on-chain, but that the on-chain needs the duck market." We are always accustomed to placing economic factors first, putting human interaction and experience last.
A very awkward fact is that Web3 is racing towards gambling, and even the foreign trend of Chinese is because there is no more profit to squeeze. The mainland market still retains the last purchasing power due to persistent high pressure.
If institutionalization and financialization are the version answers to everything, then there is no need to go through the trouble of re-entering China.
For retail investors, the most important thing is a sense of identity, just like the x402 Meme Western craze. But will this really attract external crowds to use stablecoins?
The answer is self-evident. The current problem in the crypto circle is not breaking out of the circle. Sun's reputation is poor, and USDT has truly taken a long detour from the third world to landing in Europe and America.
The secret service needs 100 Yu Zechengs, cryptocurrencies need 100 duck markets, plus a Sun.
Rent-seekers Reject Production
Urging Yu to put down the sand in his hand, he opens his mouth to sing but is mute.
The leisure class is born in the advanced stage of uncivilized culture, showcasing the economic superiority of the non-productive population.
Please take a look at LABUBU; the first group to become wealthy passes it down to the second generation, needing their unique fashion expression. Whether it looks good is not important; what matters is that I say it looks good, and you acknowledge it.
In other words, the high-end and lasting nature of LABUBU requires people to anchor it, completing the transformation of generational identity.
Why shouldn't NFTs be used to showcase this? What is the difference between Fat Penguin and Moon Bird? I think it is not the lack of physical objects; human virtualization has already begun to show signs since the QQ show era; it can only be that blockchain is not cool enough.
There is still a good opportunity now, referencing the popularization process of Western luxury goods. Luxury goods were precisely from the 70s and 80s of the last century, when Europe and America entered a stable economic period, and the middle class needed a form of identity representation that distinguished their class, ideally something they could afford with a month's salary, while the working class could only afford it in a year.
In a binary social structure of slaves/citizens and nobles/commoners, such luxury goods are not needed. Only in a complex industrial society, where humanity as a whole does not need to worry about survival, is there a need for more cultural representation.
This highlights the generational cultural changes; non-production is no longer exclusive to a minority. The majority are excluded from the production system, and rent-seekers become specialized professions after productivity develops.
Especially for Generation Z, who have had survival capabilities since birth but lack high-end living capabilities, how to coexist and even subvert early rent-seekers becomes the maternal body of the era. They can be licked or scolded, but they cannot escape the economic nurturing of rent-seekers.
Image Caption: CS Cosmetic Market Killer
Image Source: Bilibili Xi Si Fu Si-C4phus:1065727775
While the Eastern duck market continues to prosper, the Western G Fat is also making continuous efforts. The third-party black market for CS players has completely become a negative asset for CS; the ones making money are the black market merchants and speculators, while G Fat itself must bear the reputational loss when the final collapse occurs.
So, one can only flip the table in advance, my vassal's vassal is not my vassal, my market's secondary is not my market.
In my four years of entering the circle, I have always believed that Web3 is a content creative industry, but it is now close to exhaustion.
It is always the same few people, always the same few things. Of course, it is always good that BTC is the best, but BTC does not need any other subsidiary agreements, and currently, there is zero bidirectional demand that can be generated with BTC.
Image Caption: "Halo · Trump"
Image Source: @WhiteHouse
If you do not believe in the ability to create, then you underestimate your own weight. Trump has already proven the power of retail investors, benefiting the White House above, Halo below, Old Horse to the left, and CHINA to the right.
Once again, I praise the PumpFun team; although they are evil, they understand the meaning of perseverance better than Tieshun, exuding the vitality of youth.
Before the Solana Foundation took full control, it was the most active conspiracy group. However, the excellence of the foundation and the official guidance of concepts like ICM and PayFi have made that kind of Meme flying and DeFi volume no longer visible.
Although EF does not engage in human affairs or proper business, it indeed does not hinder your innovative or malicious actions; right and wrong will be left for future generations to judge.
Conclusion
The pearl buried in the soil, hiding its brilliance, once unearthed, shines brilliantly.
Web3 now needs to let go of its arrogance. Beyond the flourishing, grand institutionalization, U.S. stocks, stablecoins, and government bonds, and outside the increasingly uncontrollable Meme and Perp leverage, there needs to be a piece of pure land reserved for neutral markets; something must remain to face the impact.
Crypto punks have given birth to the concept of decentralization, allowing Bitcoin and blockchain to have a physical repository;
In the confused expectations of Generation Z, who are unwilling to lie flat, we must move away from the dead-end path towards the Muggle world.
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