A trader known as the "100% Win Rate Whale" has once again increased his position by 41.68 BTC (approximately $4.77 million) on October 28, and canceled all open orders, indicating that he may have temporarily completed a phase of building his position.

Currently, he holds a long position of 2083.84 BTC (worth $237 million) and 47,548.42 ETH (worth $196 million), with a total long position nearing $433 million. This whale has created an almost mythical reputation in the market through a series of precise operations from mid-October to now.

1. Rapid Rise: Analyzing the Whale's October Performance

In the cryptocurrency market, the trading movements of every "whale" are closely watched, but this trader's series of operations in October remains astonishing. Through precise switching between long and short positions and timing, he successfully captured every beat of market fluctuations.

Based on his publicly available on-chain operation records, we have outlined the key operation timeline for him in October:

Date

Operation and Impact

October 15

Started large short positions in BTC, establishing a bearish stance

October 16

Quickly reversed direction, began building long positions in BTC

October 17-21

Continued to increase long positions in BTC and ETH

October 22

Closed all long positions, profiting $6.04 million in one go

October 22-23

Shifted to shorting BTC, adjusting direction again

October 24

Closed all long positions, profiting $1.774 million; established new long positions in ETH (5x leverage)

October 26

Continued to increase positions, total long positions nearing $300 million

October 28

Increased position by 41.68 BTC, canceled all open orders, position unchanged

Source: AiCoin整理

● This whale's trading style is characterized by flexible switching and dual profit-taking. He does not stubbornly stick to a single direction but quickly adjusts strategies based on market changes. For example, after closing long positions for a profit of $6.04 million on October 22, he immediately shifted to shorting, demonstrating his keen market sense.

● In position management, he effectively uses limit orders to preset entry points, controlling the cost of building positions. At the same time, he dares to hold positions steady after key data releases, showing extreme confidence in his own judgment and strong risk tolerance.

2. Behind the Myth: A Multidimensional Interpretation of Whale Strategies

The operations of this "100% Win Rate Whale" are not mere gambling but follow a clear strategic logic.

● At its core is high leverage combined with massive positions, creating favorable short-term trends for himself by guiding market sentiment and self-fulfilling prophecies.

In a March operation, he used 50x leverage to establish a massive long position in a short time, steering the market in a direction favorable to himself.

● When positions show significant floating profits, he decisively converts floating profits into realized profits—by withdrawing the profitable portion from the margin and even the principal, effectively removing these funds from exchange risk. This operation essentially "locks in" profits without closing positions.

Since Hyperliquid's HLP insurance fund takes on positions at the liquidation price, the whale effectively sold the remaining positions at the liquidation price without worrying about slippage losses caused by market sell pressure, with these losses ultimately borne by the HLP fund.

● In stark contrast to another well-known whale "Maji," who suffered a liquidation of $12.56 million during the market crash on October 11, this 100% win rate whale's risk control appears more refined. "Maji" had to switch to small positions after the liquidation, transferring only $1.85 million to Hyperliquid, with his current address holding just $1.13 million.

3. Market Impact: On-Chain Game Triggered by the Whale

The large operations of this 100% win rate whale not only influenced market sentiment but also triggered real long-short battles on-chain. His massive long positions have created a clear market bias on the Hyperliquid platform, attracting many followers.

● In the current round of bullish sentiment, starting from October 25, a clear counterparty has emerged, continuously increasing short positions in BTC to counter the whale. As of October 26, the floating loss of this counterparty's short positions once rose to $1.85 million. This clearly indicates a significant divergence in market expectations for future trends.

● The Hyperliquid platform itself has also become a beneficiary and risk bearer of this whale game. During the market crash on October 11, according to on-chain analyst @mlmabc, a shorting whale on Hyperliquid made daily profits of approximately $190 million to $200 million. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's HLP daily profits reached $40 million, with an annualized rate soaring to 190%, and overall capital returns reaching 10-12%.

However, such high returns come with high risks. When whales take extreme actions, the HLP insurance fund may bear significant losses. In a March incident, a whale actively pushed up the liquidation price by withdrawing most of the principal and profits, making the remaining positions highly susceptible to liquidation.

Position Type

Position Size

Opening Average Price

Current Status

BTC Long Position

2,083.84 BTC ($237 million)

$111,897.3

Floating Profit

ETH Long Position

47,548.42 ETH ($196 million)

$3,965.94

Floating Profit

Counterparty Short Position

Undisclosed Size

Undisclosed

Floating Loss once reached $1.85 million

Source: Ai姨, AiCoin整理

4. Underlying Risks: Potential Crises Behind the Perfect Record

Despite maintaining a 100% win rate, this whale's operations harbor various risks, and the market is speculating on "when" the failure will come.

High Leverage as a Double-Edged Sword

● The whale frequently uses 5x to 12x high leverage to amplify profits, but this is a double-edged sword in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Once the market experiences unexpected severe fluctuations, high-leverage positions are at great risk of liquidation.

● In the world of crypto trading, stories of massive profits and catastrophic losses are not new. Even well-known traders like "Maji" suffered an astonishing loss of $12.56 million in principal during the market crash on October 11.

Exchange Mechanism Risks

● Centralized exchanges know exactly where traders' liquidation points are, and market makers may exploit this data. In low liquidity situations, the conditions required for forced price movements are minimal. Such actions liquidate large positions, forcing assets to be sold at rock-bottom prices. The same entities then buy these assets at low prices—profiting from the rebound. This tactic is known as liquidation hunting—very common in the crypto space.

● James Wen's $100 million liquidation incident exposed this risk—sudden price candles appeared on one exchange, just enough to liquidate his position, while no other exchanges showed similar movements.

The Reality Dilemma for Followers

● For ordinary investors, following whale operations faces many challenges. Due to information asymmetry and time lag, when retail investors see whale operations, they often miss the best entry points.

● More importantly, due to this whale's higher entry points, addresses currently following his operations have already incurred $846,000 in floating losses. This clearly indicates that even the "100% win rate" label cannot guarantee profits in subsequent operations.

5. Future Outlook: Where Will the Whale Era Go?

There are several key points worth continuous attention regarding the future operations and market impact of this "100% Win Rate Whale":

Position Changes and Platform Responses

● It is essential to closely monitor whether this whale will continue to increase or start to reduce positions. His recent cancellation of all open orders may signal the beginning of a new strategic phase.

● At the same time, trading platforms like Hyperliquid may also adjust rules in response to the strategies of whales. After the March incident, although Hyperliquid adjusted its rules, it was seen as a stopgap measure by the industry, failing to address the fundamental issues.

Overall Market Liquidity

● Not only this whale but the entire crypto market faces risks from broader financial markets. According to research by JPMorgan, the debt scale of AI-related companies has surpassed that of traditional banking, becoming the largest sector in investment-grade bond indices, accounting for 14%, with total liabilities exceeding $1.2 trillion.

● This trend has raised market awareness of credit bubbles, with analysts warning that if a paradigm shift occurs in the AI sector, the impact of its credit collapse could be more severe than a stock market crash. Such macro risks may indirectly affect the liquidity and stability of the cryptocurrency market through adjustments in institutional investors' asset allocations.

Market participants are closely watching the outcome of this high-risk game. An on-chain observer pointed out: "When he wins, the whole world sees; but if he loses, it could happen in an instant, and by the time we notice, it may already be over."

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